daytona xfinity

The Xfinity Series will be the first to hit the new Daytona road course this weekend on Saturday afternoon. No one in this Series has ever raced on this road course configuration and there will be no pre-race practice. So there is a lot of unpredictability in this race and I'll be playing a little less than I normally do this weekend.

In addition, there are only 52 laps, so we're only going to have 13 total points awarded for laps led and (after caution laps are removed) a little over 20 total points for fastest laps. That means points for raw finishing position and position difference are key. And any points lost for finishing worse than a driver's starting spot are going to be killers.

I think the first question you need to answer is whether you want to spend up for Austin Cindric or A.J. Allmendinger. Cindric has a good chance of leading early, but there's increased risk with that this week because Chase Briscoe starts right next to him on the front row. So Cindric will face a stiff challenge for the lead from the get go. And, Allmendinger starts much further forward this week, so he's likely to be in the Top 5 pretty quickly and well within striking distance before the end of Stage 1 -- especially in the likely event we see some caution flags early in this race. A race win gives Cindric 46 DK points. So he's going to need another 9 points from laps led and fastest laps to hit 5x value. This is certainly doable, although 55-60 points is really the ceiling of what Cindric can do if everything falls perfectly for him.

As for Allmendinger, he's a very safe bet for a Top 5 finish and very likely a Top 3. I'd expect Cindric and AJ to be on the same pit strategy (going for the win and ignoring stage points), so I think AJ will have to pass Cindric on the track to beat him and win the race. I do like his chances -- especially after rewatching the Charlotte Roval race from last Fall. AJ was just toying with everyone for the first two stages and then ran away with the win in the final stage. He was clearly the best and fastest car there. That track layout is a lot like Daytona and very clearly the best comp to this new layout. The issue with AJ, of course, is his salary and how it hampers the rest of your roster.

As of now, I'm thinking these two guys (plus Briscoe) split the laps led and fastest laps points enough that none of them pulls away and puts up a big number. The best lineup in that scenario is to simply grab as much position difference upside as you can. So, let's look at my favorite plays with that in mind in descending salary order.

• Justin Allgaier - Great cash game play if you are not using Cindric or AJ. This should easily be a Top 10 car and should be in the Top 6 barring an issue. He's starting this far back because he got wrecked late in the race at Road America and finishing position in the last race was a big factor in the formula used to determine the starting order this week.
• Daniel Hemric - Also should be a Top 10 car. He's not a great or race winning road course driver, but he's solid and in top equipment. Starting this far back because his engine blew up early at Road America.
• Earl Bamber - Elite IMSA road course driver in a top RCR car. But it's his first ever race in a stock car. That is concerning with no practice. Bamber has a ton of experience on the traditional Daytona road course layout, but not with the added front stretch chicane added for the NASCAR races this weekend. Kaz Grala finished 4th in this car last week at Road America (although he started much farther forward as well), so the speed should be there to finish in the Top 10 with +20 position difference.
• Brandon Gdovic - Another road course specialist with little NASCAR experience. It is helpful that Gdovic ran this car earlier this year at the Indy road course race. He started 38th there and finished 12th. I think it's a stretch to be confident he can finish that well again, but a Top 20 is likely if he doesn't have an issue. 
• Jeremy Clements and Alex Labbe - Basically the same guy here. Both will finish in (over very near) the Top 10 if they avoid trouble. I'd lean Labbe as the safer option but Clements as having just a bit more upside. Both were running really well last week until having issues. Labbe over drove a corner, spun Myatt Snider and had to race back through a bunch of lead lap cars. Clements was involved in the late race restart wreck that got Allgaier as well.
• Myatt Snider - A Top 12-15 car if he doesn't have issues. But he tends to have issues. As just mentioned, he got spun by Labbe last week and got some damage that really killed his race.
• Jake Buford and Scott Heckert - Both are very good road course drivers. Buford is in the better car by far. Heckert had some speed last week but was having an ignition issue that kept cropping up throughout the race. The reliability of his car is really a big question mark.
• Kyle Weatherman - I personally think it's a terrible play because of how unreliable the Mike Harmon cars are. Weatherman's teammate didn't even make it through the pace laps without the car breaking down last week. But a lot of people seem to be going toward him lately, so I wanted to mention him. He might get some ownership because of his salary and starting position. A 20th or so is his ceiling in my view.