dover cup

The weather forecast is looking very wet for Sunday, so a delay or postponement seems very likely at this point.  Here's my approach as of now:

• I really like a handful of guys in the $7,500-$9,000 range.  Kyle Larson and Daniel Suarez are my favorites in that group, but Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer and Eric Jones also look like strong choices.
  • Larson was very good in Saturday's lone practice.  He was at the top of the 1, 10, 15 and 20 lap speeds.  He finished 10th and 12th at Dover last year, but in 2017, he finished 2nd and 5th and led 241 laps and 137 laps in those two races.
  • Daniel Suarez has been very solid lately and he has an excellent record at Dover.  In 4 Dover races, he's finished 6th, 8th, 3rd and 10th.  He hasn't led a lot of laps or scored a lot of fastest laps, but he should be in line for a solid Top 10 run with a positive position difference.
• It's been really hard to pass this season in general and the Trucks and Xfinity cars all had trouble passing for the lead.  So I'm likely to role with pole sitter Chase Elliott.  He won here last Fall and has finished in the Top 5 in 5 of his 6 Dover races.  He should be in for a Top 5 finish with a chunk of laps led and fastest laps.
  
• On the high end, I like Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.
  
  • Harvick completely crushed it here last season.  He won the Spring race, led 201 laps and had 113 fastest laps.  In the Fall, he finished 6th, led 251 laps and had 104 fastest laps.  I'm discounting somewhat the results for last year since the package and racing is so much different this year.  But Harvick also showed really strong long run speed in final practice -- scoring 5th in 20 lap average and 2nd in 30 lap average.  Whenever he's making such long runs in practice, he is feeling good in the car and it's close to what he needs for the race.
    
  • Busch has great position difference upside from his 22nd starting spot.  He's always a threat, but he hasn't been great at Dover -- especially in the Spring.  In the last 3 Spring races, he's finished 30th, 16th and 35th.  He was 4th in 20 lap average in final practice, so he has pretty good long run speed.
  • Truex is also a possible option for me.  He's finished in the Top 4 in 4 of the last 5 Dover races and had some decent chunks of laps led and fastest laps.
• On the salary saver end, my top choices are Matt Tifft and Ryan Preece.  This is really all based on starting spot.  I don't expect either to do much better than 25th, but that result would pay off their lower salary.