final Phoenix pre-race notes

We've got 12 drivers on the target list below but I want to try to simplify things and get a smaller group of the real top targets for you.  So here are my top guys:

• Harvick -- The guy is on a roll and he just killed final practice.  He had the best single lap and best 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap averages.  There is nothing more this team would like to do than dominate again this week after getting slammed with the penalty after Las Vegas.  On top of that, he starts 10th, so there are position difference points to be gained as well.  Despite the salary, he's a virtual must have.
  
• Elliott -- He has a great record at this track and was on Harvick's heels during final practice.  He had the 6th fastest single lap, but had the second fastest 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap averages.  He rolls off third and could be in the lead very soon after that.  Last year, he finished 2nd and 12th at Phoenix and led 140 of the 626 laps run there.
  
• Almirola -- Struggled early in the weekend but made huge gains in final practice.  He had the 4th fastest single lap, but third best 10 lap and 15 lap averages.  When interviewed after practice, he seemed confident and said they needed only a few small tweaks to really have the car dialed in like the 4 of Harvick.  Almirola starts 22nd, so offers position difference points if he finishes in the Top 12 or so as I expect he will.
  
• Eric Jones -- Quietly putting together a great weekend.  They had a steering issue in the first practice today, but really got the car dialed in during final practice.  He posted the 9th fastest single lap, but was 7th in 10 lap average.  About two-thirds of the way through final practice, the Fox broadcast said Jones was 4th best in 20 lap average -- ahead of his JGR teammates Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch.  I don't know for sure it ended in that exact order, but it is clear Jones has a good car and comes at a good discount compared to his JGR teammates.  And don't forget Jones finished 4th and 8th last year at Phoenix.
  
• McDowell -- That's where I would go for a salary saver.  In the final practice, he had the 21st fastest single lap time and 21st best 10 lap average.  That was about 5-8 spots better than the other guys down at the bottom end of the salary scale.  He also starts 31st, just in front of the back markers, so there is nowhere to go but up with position difference points in the offing. 
  

I recommend building your main lineups around these guys.  If you use all five, it leaves you with $7,200 in salary left.  You can slide Stenhouse in there for $7,100.  Admittedly, he's in a back-up car, hasn't looked great and will be starting from the rear.  So it's not a great scenario for him.  But he is credited with the 29th starting spot, so he'll likely score a decent number of position difference points.  He had the 20th best 10 lap average in final practice, so if he can just finish between 15th - 20th, he'll give you decent points plus the 10 or so position difference points.  And don't forget what we said below -- last Spring he started 21st and finished 4th and last Fall he started 27th and finished 8th.  So he's done this before -- twice.  Anything close to a repeat is a home run.

Just a few quick comments on guys I am not pushing this week.  I've seen others pushing some or all of these guys, so I wanted to explain why I am not going that way.  It's not that I don't like these guys or don't think they cannot dominate and win.  All of them are capable of doing that and you should have exposure to them if you're doing a bunch of lineups.  I just like the guys I listed above a bit more:

• Martin Truex -- Starts on the pole.  He just doesn't have a great history at Phoenix (only one Top 10 finish in the last five races) so I am very worried that you're starting the race in the hole with him because you will almost certainly have negative position difference points.  On top of that, he didn't look great in practice on Saturday.  He was only 11th fastest in 10 lap average during final practice.  And the Fox broadcast seemed to say he had not done any 15 lap or 20 lap runs.  If true, that's concerning because it suggests they were still searching and making numerous changes instead of doing a long run race simulation.  I'd be surprised if he just drives off and leads a bunch of laps.  There's a small chance it could happen so, as we always say, have some exposure if you're doing a bunch of lineups, but I wouldn't be targeting him in your main lineups. 
• Kyle Bush -- He profiles very similar to Eric Jones this week, but Kyle's salary is $10,500 and Eric's is only $8,300.  For example, in final practice, Kyle had the 8th best single lap and 6th best 10 lap average.  Jones had the 9th best single lap and 7th best 10 lap average.  Kyle starts 7th and Jones starts 9th.  Jones is virtually the same guy for $2,200 less.  Again, I like Kyle a lot.  But Jones is the better salary play.
  
• Denny Hamlin -- Basically the same story as Kyle.  Denny starts 6th.  In final practice, he had the 10th quickest single lap and 10th best 10 lap average.  He costs $9,200 -- still $900 more than Jones.
  
• Brad Keselowski -- Brad starts 25th, so he has a lot of position difference potential.  But he has really had a pedestrian weekend so far.  In the first practice today, he was 10th in 10 lap average.  In final practice, he was 12th in single lap time and 10 lap average.  So the numbers are showing a finish in the 8th-14th range.  I would like to see more for a $9,900 salary.  Also, the last three times Brad has started back in the pack, he has struggled.  In Spring 2016, he started 19th and finished 29th.  In Fall 2016, he started 14th and finished 14th.  And in Fall 2017, he started 16th and finished 16th.  So, at least in the last few years, when Brad has not qualified well here, he hasn't finished well here.  Again, given the upside potential, you should by all means use him if you're doing multiple lineups.  I wouldn't put it past he and Paul Wolff to come up with a strategy play to get him track position and a chance to lead laps and finish near the top.  But that's just swinging for the fences right now and it's not something I want to do in my main lineup.
  

If you have any questions or lineup decisions to make, please reach out on twitter @illinisjc and I'll do my best to answer them.

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