final pre-race daytona thoughts

• The ending of the Xfinity race today is another reminder why it's borderline insane to try to predict plate track races.  So many drivers ran near the front all day long, but the wreck up front (and then multiple overtime wrecks) took it all away -- in most cases through no fault of the driver.  In the end, I would say plate tracks are at best 50% driver skill and 50% luck.  It is really probably way more luck.  With that in mind, any predictions about who might win and who will score the most fantasy points on Sunday is only a little more scientific than a wild guess.
• Just to have some guys to root for, I played the big $3 game on DK today.  Came in 218th out of 5,945 entries.  Won $10.  Big deal.  But, I really don't play much more then that at plate tracks.  I'll do a bit more for the 500, but will be much more heavily invested in Atlanta next week and beyond.  For this week, plan to lose every cent you play and be happy to win any of it back.
• I'm sticking with the guys I've already talked about this week (see below).  The big choice this week is what to do with Keselowski and Larson in particular.  If either (or both) of those guys wins or finishes real high up, it will be really hard to overcome that if they're not in your line-up because they'll have so many position difference bonus points.   If you're doing one entry, I've got to think you want to have them both in there.  But, if you were to pick only one of them, I lean Keselowski.  If you're doing multiple entries, shake things up.  Do some lineups with both in there, some with one or the other and then some fading both of them completely.  Fading both is ultra risky, but both will be so highly owned that, if you do fade them and they both wreck, then you'll almost certainly have a good day.  Almirola and Jimmie Johnson are also guys starting in the rear that you will want to sprinkle throughout your line-ups in case they go to the front.  I'd say it's less likely for them to do so, but anything can happen at a plate track.  So use them in some lineups if you want to cover all the bases.
• A few final bold predictions -- (1) Some combination of 4 cars from Penske and Stewart-Haas will be in the top 10.  I'll say Logano, Blaney, Harvick and Bowyer.  (2)  A Penske or SHR car wins.  (3)  At most, 1 Hendrick car will finish in the Top 20.  The young guns will crash, the 48 will have some kind of trouble and only Chase Elliott will finish on the lead lap.  (4)  RCR plus affiliate Germain Racing will put 2 cars in the top 10.  I'll go with Newman and Ty Dillon.
• Enjoy the race.  I'll try to post something real late Sunday night/early Monday morning with my race observations and analyzing how off base my targets and predictions were!