final talladega update

The chaos already started in qualifying.  Aric Almirola had something break in the rear end of his car.  He slowed dramatically and eventually lost control of the car.  He never hit the wall but will be in a backup for the race.  He qualified 40th. 

So here's my approach for this race.  I think this applies to cash and tournaments equally.

• Position difference is going to be the key factor this week.  There are less than 200 laps in this race and very rarely does any driver lead more than about 60 laps total.  (In the last 6 Talladega races, the most laps led by one driver is 90 and the other races ranged from 46-67.)  And fastest laps get spread throughout the field because of the draft.  So, unlike most weeks, there won't be a dominator who starts up front.
• Salary won't really be an issue this week.  We don't want the real expensive guys starting up front.
• The same approach seems best for DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
• Lock in Almirola.  You have to play him in cash.  In a tournament, I guess you could fade him, but his upside is through the roof and there is no downside.
• Build the rest of your lineup using guys on credible teams starting 18th or worse.  In addition to Almirola, I counted 13 other guys who are legitimate starters for this week.  My favorites are bolded:
  • Ryan Newman (starts 18th) -- three consecutive Top 10s at plate tracks
  • Kyle Busch (19th) -- strong team with good pit stops; will move up if not in Big One
  • Kyle Larson (22nd) -- same as Busch
  • Ryan Blaney (23rd) -- Penske, Fords strong at Talladega
  • Austin Dillon (24th) -- won most recent plate track race
  • Chris Buescher (25th) -- 17th (+11 positions) and 15th (+19 positions) last year
  • Kasey Kahne (26th) -- finished 5th and 8th at Talladega last year
  • Jamie McMurray (27th) -- 2 Top 5 finishes from similar spot in last 4 races
  • AJ Allmendinger (28th) -- good plate track history, but more so at Daytona
  • Ty Dillon (29th) -- finished 11th and 13th from 25th and 28th starting last year
  • Matt DiBenidetto (33rd) -- been good in 4 of 5 plate track races with the 32 team
  • Cole Whitt (36th) -- 4 Top 20 finishes in last 6 Talladega races
  • Gray Gaulding (37th) -- finished 9th and 20th from 39th and 37th starting last year
• I would not deviate from the above strategy in a cash game.  If you want to go off strategy in a tournament, you could add a Top 15 starter with a strong Talladega or plate track history.  The guys I would consider are Hamlin, Stenhouse, Logano and Keselowski.
• In the Nascar Fantasy Live game, I'd go with Logano, Keselowski, Hamlin, Stenhouse, Hamlin and Elliott.
• Good luck.  And don't over do it this weekend.  These plate track races are the most unpredictable races where luck plays much more of a role than in other weeks.