FIRST LOOK AT DAYTONA

With cars hitting the track for practice, qualifying and "The Clash" this coming weekend, it's time to start thinking about lineups for the Daytona 500.  First a few general concepts to remember for plate track races:

• There is always a "big one," or two, or three.  These races are notorious for having one or more huge crashes that can take out a dozen cars or more.  Part of the key to approaching a plate track race is finding guys who have a tendency to survive to the end of the race.
• Don't focus too much on practice speeds.  In practice this week, so much depends on what the drivers are working on.  Some (like Jimmie Johnson) are notorious for working on single car runs and will be at the bottom of the speed chart because of that.  Others just want to preserve their engine and other parts, so don't run much at all.  And some like to simulate race conditions and get a lot of drafting practice.  If they hit it just right, they will post a great lap time, but probably overstate their true speed and handling comfort relative to the field.  By and large, you can ignore it all and just enjoy the sight and sound of cars back on the track.  If you take anything from it, listen carefully to driver interviews or commentary to see who feels the most comfortable with their car.
• Honestly, I hate doing fantasy games for plate track races.  There is so much that is outside the driver's control and random chance plays just as much a role as anything else.  But it's been a long off-season and it's the Daytona 500, so even if it's DFS, you still can't resist, right.  I sure can't.
• Because of what I just said, I would generally advise to stay away from the big names at plate tracks.  They just don't have as big of a built in advantage as they do at other tracks because they are just as likely to get caught up in a wreck as anyone else.  And, as the saying goes, the draft is the great equalizer.  It allows the middle and lower tier teams to race right up aside the big boys.  Remember this especially in games where you have limits on the number of times you can use a driver during the season -- like the new NASCAR Fantasy Live game.  Don't burn one of your races for a top driver at a plate track.

With that said, here are a couple of drivers to focus on this coming week.  We'll add more driver targets and analysis in the coming days:

• Aric Almirola -- Been very strong at Daytona in recent years.  Won the July 2014 rain-shortened race.  Finished in the Top 15 and completed all the laps in 5 of the last 6 races at Daytona.  Did not complete all the laps in July 2015 because he got caught up in the "big one" during that race.  CAUTION -- first race with a new team, so will have to hope they have all the kinks worked out.
  
• AJ Allmendinger -- Finished 3rd in the Daytona 500 last year and 8th in the July race.  Has completed all the laps in the last 6 races at Daytona.  He has qualified poorly for most recent races, but finished the entire race and done pretty well.
  
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. -- Won the July race last year.  Has completed all of the laps in 9 of his 11 Cup Series starts at Daytona.  He also won at the other plate track (Talladega) last year and has a very strong record of completing all the laps there as well.  In fact, you would have to say the plate tracks are clearly his best tracks.  CAUTION -- he has finished much better in the July race than the 500. 
• Joey Logano -- Won the Daytona 500 in 2015.  After the utter disappointment of 2017, I have to imagine this team is absolutely bound and determined to come out of the box firing in 2018.  He has completed all the laps in 11 of the last 13 Daytona races and has Top 10 finishes in 7 of those 13 races.  He also has two Talladega wins in the last three years.  So he has a very strong plate track profile.