phoenix PREVIEW (post qualifying UPDATE)

Here's our updated list of driver targets for this Sunday's race at Phoenix.  We didn't learn too much from practice on Friday because no one did extended race runs.  It was all focused on qualifying.  We've made a few additions and updates here based on speed shown Friday and starting spot.  Saturday night, we'll have a final update with some example roster constructions.

• Kevin Harvick $11,400 (Qualified 10th) -- Big surprise that he's here, right?  He was dominant at Atlanta and Las Vegas.  He won both races and led 395 of the 592 laps run.  More bad news for the field is that Phoenix used to be Harvick's playground.  From November 2013 to March 2016, Harvick won five of the six Phoenix races (he finished second in the only race he didn't win) and led well over 100 laps in each of those races.  In the three races since then, he hasn't led any laps, but he has still finished 4th, 6th and 5th.  The only open question is how the penalty for the roof and side skirt issues impacts the team.  Until we see something otherwise in practice, we have to expect a Top 5 finish this weekend.  The question will be is he worth the price tag this week.  UPDATE:  Will be starting 10th.  Will have to watch his extended race runs in practice on Saturday to make a final call on whether he is worth the price tag. 
• Martin Truex $10,900 (1st) (ADDED FRIDAY NIGHT) -- Phoenix tends to have a driver who dominates for long stretches and leads 100+ laps.  Truex is starting first and could be that guy.  He doesn't have a long history of success here, but he broke out at new tracks last year, so a break out here would not be all that surprising.  Last Fall was his best Phoenix race.  He started 5th and finished 3rd, but did not lead any laps.  Truex has not led a lap at Phoenix in the last 11 races there -- despite starting in the Top 10 for five of those races.  As you can see, there are indicators going in every direction here.  As of now, I wouldn't say he is a main recommendation, but you can use him on a secondary lineup or two in case he does go off and lead a bunch of laps, etc.
  
• Kyle Busch $10,500 (7th) -- Kyle has a great four race streak going at Phoenix.  He has finished 7th, 3rd, 2nd and 4th in those races.  He has also led laps in the last two Spring races -- 75 laps in 2016 and 114 in 2017.  He's also running well right now, having finished 7th at Atlanta and 2nd at Las Vegas.  And he comes at a $900 discount off Harvick.
• Kyle Larson $10,300 (2nd) (ADDED FRIDAY NIGHT) -- Larson is a strong candidate to lead laps on Sunday.  Last Fall, Larson started 3rd and moved up to 2nd before his motor blew-up, leading to a 40th place finish.  In the two Phoenix races before that, he started 4th and finished 2nd and started 2nd and finished 3rd.  So he does have a recent history of running well when starting up front.  That said, he has only led 15 laps in those three races despite being in position to do much more.
  
• Chase Elliott $9,800 (3rd) -- Chase is off to a slow start, after having been crashed out of two of the first three races.  Last year at Phoenix, however, he finished 2nd and 12th and led laps in both races (106 in the Spring and 34 in the Fall).  He also finished 9th and 8th at Phoenix during the 2016 season.  So he has done very well in all four career races at this track.  (One minor concern is the incident he had with Denny Hamlin at this track last year in the playoffs.  Hamlin had wrecked Elliott the week before at Martinsville.  Elliott raced Hamlin very aggressively at Phoenix with Hamlin finally crashing after contact with Elliott.  You have to figure that Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs teammates will race Elliott very aggressively during this race in particular.)  He is also on the high end of the price range given his lackluster results thus far this year.  UPDATE:  The Hendrick group showed some speed today and has shown pretty good results at Phoenix.  He remains a top target.
• Denny Hamlin $9,200 (6th) (ADDED FRIDAY NIGHT) -- I hate to add so many drivers, but I think it's relevant to remind people about last Fall.  That race, Hamlin started 2nd, but went to the lead and led 193 laps before the incident with Elliott took him out of contention.  Hamlin's price tag is fair and he has a chance of leading a good number of laps.
  
• Eric Jones $8,300 (9th) -- Jones finished 4th and 8th in the two Phoenix races last year with Furniture Row Racing.  (He also ran both Phoenix Xfinity races last year and finished 3rd in both, with 36 and 65 laps led.)  Jones also ran the Phoenix Cup race in Fall of 2016 in the #20 car for Joe Gibbs Racing when Matt Kenseth was suspended for purposely wrecking Joey Logano at Martinsville.  In that race, Jones finished 19th after starting 7th.  Jones is running pretty well right now, having finished 11th at Atlanta and 8th at Las Vegas.  He has an affordable price tag and is looking like a really strong mid-range target.  UPDATE:  Showed good speed and will start 9th.  I like him at this price.
• Aric Almirola $8,100 (22nd) -- He would really leap out if Fords continue to show dominance early in the weekend.  He has a solid history at Phoenix during his time at RPM.  In the last Phoenix race, he finished 9th after starting 22nd.  A lot will depend on starting spot with him.  UPDATE:  The Fords did not look dominant today and he will start back in 22nd.  I'm not sure the upside is there to justify the spend.
• Ricky Stenhouse $7,100 (29th) -- Stenhouse finished 8th and 4th last year at Phoenix.  In both races he started deep in the field outside the Top 20.  He has struggled to start this year -- finishing no better than 14th so far -- but is still one to keep an eye on this week, especially with this reduced price tag.  UPDATE:  Will start 29th.  Something broke on his first lap in practice and he had to go to the backup car.  He's a real good option to score a solid finish with 10+ position difference points.  Last Spring he started 21st but finished 4th and last Fall he started 27th but finished 8th.  Even half that would pay off at this salary.
• Ty Dillon $6,400 (28th) -- Ty is looking like a strong salary saver this week.  In the last Phoenix race, he started 29th, but finished all the way up in the 11th position.  In his only other Phoenix race with Germain Racing, he finished 16th after starting 15th.  A lot will depend on his starting spot.  (He has run the Phoenix Xfinity races often and finished in the Top 10 seven of eight times.)  UPDATE:  Will start 28th.  I'm not in love with this option.  I think I'd rather pay a bit more for Stenhouse or go down to McDowell or DiBenedetto.
• Michael McDowell $5,200 (31st) -- We got burned by McDowell last week, but that was pure bad luck.  He seemed to have decent speed and even led some laps using an alternate pit strategy.  But his engine blew up midway through the race and he finished dead last.  This week, he tweeted (@Mc_Driver) a picture of the debris that punctured the radiator and drained all the water causing the engine failure.  Given the completely random nature of this failure, I would have no hesitation going back to this well if we see good signs in practice and qualifying.  He has no great Phoenix finishes.  But, in the last race there, he finished 22nd and had +6 position difference.  We would take that any day at this salary.  UPDATE:  Will start 31st.  This leaves good room for a finish in the 20-25th range and about 10 position difference points.  A good spot at this price.
• Matt DiBenedetto $4,900 (30th) (ADDED FRIDAY NIGHT) --  Matt had an interesting week.  He appealed for sponsorship on-line and got thousands of dollars of support from fellow drivers, including Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick.  I'd say the same thing about him as McDowell.  He's a decent salary saver with hopes of finishing 20th-25th for 10 or so position difference points.
  

Watch for a final update with sample lineups on Sunday morning.