homestead cup

Article for Sunday Xfinity race is below this, so scroll down. Straight to the point here focusing on cash game and 50/50 targets:

Top Tier ($10K and up)
A good case can be made for any of the guys from Kyle Busch on up. Here are my Top 3 considering overall risk and upside:

• Truex - I really like this team right now. Always strong on a long run, we tend to see those at Homestead. Probably had the best car here last year but had a pit road melt down. Finished 1st or 2nd here the last three seasons with 76, 65.5 and 99.25 DK points.
• Harvick - Been really, really good at the 1.5 mile tracks all season long. Splitting hairs to make a choice between him and Truex. Both are great plays.
• Kyle Busch - $10,100 for Kyle. Just have to love that potential value. He's been really strong at Homestead over the years.

Mid Tier
Three favorites in this group:

• Tyler Reddick - An absolute beast here in the Xfinity Series the last few seasons. Was by far the best in that Series running the wall. Some risk running up there but also a lot of speed. Top 12 potential with some fastest laps. Hits value at 16th or better.
• Ryan Blaney - He's been really fast at the 1.5 mile tracks all year. In the three races at those tracks since the layoff, he's scored 68, 63 and 54 DK points. Definitely looking for a Top 10 with some fastest laps.
• Kurt Busch - Been real fast and consistently inside the Top 10 all year. In the last eight races, he's finished in the Top 8 seven times. Will throw in a handful of fastest laps and get to about 45 points.
• Christopher Bell - I think he's too expensive. He was never great here in Xfinity and never seemed really comfortable running the wall. I can envision him finishing this race somewhere in the 18th-20 range. But he'd really need to max out that projection to hit a 5x value on his salary. Might end up using him, but am not thrilled about it.

Salary Savers ($6,500 and under)
Rough ranking of this group combining expected DK points and salary:

• Cole Custer - Pretty much a lock in any cash game setting. Only $6k with an incredibly high floor and +20 position difference upside. Ran pretty well here in Xfinity and I fully expect a Top 20.
• Aric Almirola - Has run into a few issues lately but this is too cheap for what should be a Top 15 car. Hits 5x value at 17th or better.
• Eric Jones - Also too cheap but a little added risk starting 15th. Would not dispute someone liking Jones over Almirola.
• Ryan Preece and Michael McDowell - Pretty much the same guy. I'd lean Preece slightly since he's starting 33rd compared to 30th for McDowell. But if you need the extra $500 in savings down to McDowell I wouldn't hesitate in doing that.

Bets

• Not seeing much of value here. Will check back in the morning.