homestead - cup

I think I might be coming at things a different way this week, particularly when it comes to Denny Hamlin. I think a lot of people will be on him with a sub-$10k salary starting from the pole after dominating this race last year. I'm lukewarm on him and might end up preferring to use safer, position difference upside guys. Let's look at some specific plays I like for cash games:

• Tyler Reddick - Have to lock him in. Tremendous upside, reasonable price, near 100% ownership. This is as close as it gets to a free square and you've got to take it.
• Matt DiBenedetto and William Byron - Two solid choices. I don't know why they are more expensive then Reddick because they don't have near his upside. They are unlikely to run more than a handful of fastest laps and are probably looking at 10th-15th as a reasonable finishing position. Matty D finished 14th here last year and Byron finished 9th. They are both off to terrible starts this season and desperately need a clean run to get things going back in the right direction.
• Austin Dillon - I'm normally not a big Austin Dillon guy, but he's real good here. He's finished in the Top 12 five consecutive races, including 8th and 7th in the last two races here. Starting 22nd, he can reasonably be expected to be +10 position difference.
• Ross Chastain and Chase Briscoe - Both are around the same price and starting spot. They should have the car to get at least +10 position difference. The question is can they execute in the early stages of their Cup careers? The problem I have is I really don't like anybody cheaper for cash games. You could use Ryan Newman or Anthony Alfredo -- but I really wouldn't feel too good about that.
• Denny Hamlin - Great price and certainly has the potential to dominate the race like he did last year. A couple of big concerns though. First, he's started from the pole the last four races here and last year was the only time it has worked out well. In the three prior pole starts, he failed to score even 44 DK points. Second, being the pole sitter now based on a computer formula of past performance metrics doesn't mean you'll have speed or the right setup for this race. Third, Logano and Harvick also start on the first two rows and will likely challenge Hamlin. Fourth, we have a competition caution at Lap 25 which will result in pit stops and a restart with a bunched up field. There's enough questions to make me lean towards playing it safer with the position difference guys.
• Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson - Love these guys. Race winning potential and position difference upside to boot. I have to lean Blaney here. In the last five races, his crew chief Todd Gordon has finished 4th, 6th, 1st, 5th and 3rd. He and Blaney combined for the 3rd place finish last year with 70 laps led and 27 fastest laps. The prior four finishes were with Joey Logano.