homestead trucks

I'm really looking forward to four races this weekend -- especially at a track like Homestead where we have multiple grooves and have seen some pretty good racing action. But I think we've also got to be prepared for rain delays, postponements or scheduling changes. That's a near certainty with anything scheduled for a Summer afternoon in South Florida. Fortunately, the track has lights.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the conditions this weekend will be much different then we normally have in Homestead. In the past, the Homestead weekend was the last weekend of the season. It was in November, it was cooler and the races would tend to finish in the dark under the lights. This weekend, everything except this Trucks Series race is an afternoon race that should be run in mostly sunshine or at least daylight conditions. 

For the Trucks race, I see this one shaping up the same way as Atlanta. You can scroll down to read that analysis for more background. I'm likely to take two of the Big Three and then fill in with the many cheap plays available starting farther back in the field. There are a number of pretty bad pricing errors that make this strategy easy to implement this week. I am concerned about mass duplicate or overlapping lineups in cash games. I never like when we see lots of duplicates or ties or where many teams have four or five drivers in common since it turns those contests into a 1-on-1 or 2-on-2 driver match up which can be very random.

The Big Three are obviously Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain. I said last week even before Austin Hill won that the #16 team has an elite 1.5 mile track program. But Kyle and Chase are still faster then the #16 team and should prevail if they are mistake free. For example, in Atlanta, Kyle ran 39 fastest laps, Chase ran 22 fastest laps and Austin Hill had only 10. I would expect Kyle and Chase to eat up about 75% of the fastest laps and laps led points and it would be really hard to overcome that advantage if you're not using at least one -- and probably both -- of them.

Last week, I decided to use Ross Chastain with Kyle Busch because I didn't feel comfortable with the rest of my lineup if I used an additional $1700 to get up to Chase Elliott instead of Ross. In addition, Ross was starting 27th last week, so I was projecting him for a minimum of +20 position difference. We've got a little different story this week because we have a lot of viable cheap plays and Ross is starting much further forward in the 15th position. Realistically, this caps his position difference upside at about +10. And I don't think we see Ross leading laps again this week. That was great for my lineup in Atlanta but not something I projected or expected.

Who are the options to go with your two studs:

• Tate Fogleman $4,700 - This is just way too cheap. He went a few laps down early at Atlanta due to a mechanical issue. The team got it worked out and he just turned laps the rest of the night and finished 32nd. Prior to that, though, he had finished 19th at Las Vegas and 17th at Charlotte. This should be something in the neighborhood of a 20th-22nd place truck. Starting 29th, that gives him a nice upside of +9 position difference and about 30 points overall. A great 6+x return on his mispriced salary. He did have the issue last week but this team is still pretty reliable in the context of the Trucks Series. He only lost a few laps so it was likely something very minor that would have been quickly discovered in practice. I see no reason to think the issue will carry over to this week.
• Spencer Boyd $4,800 - Fogleman's teammate is also too cheap. Boyd tends to finish in the mid-20s. I wouldn't give him more than +5 position difference upside, but even a conservative 25th place finish gives you 22 points and an almost 5x return. Boyd has more experience overall than Fogleman, but he hasn't raced a truck at Homestead since 2016.
• Angela Ruch $4,900 - I hate to admit that she's in play. She can be erratic, but has finished 23rd, 24th and 29th in the three 1.5 mile track races this season. Probably not as reliable as Fogleman/Boyd but starts behind them in 30th. I don't feel as good about the Reaume trucks as I did last season.
• Jennifer Jo Cobb $5,200 - It's fair to project Cobb finishing just inside the Top 30 here. She is a veteran driver and team owner. Her trucks tend to run slow but complete the race, so there could be a bit more upside if this becomes a wreck fest. Can really only go up from where she's starting in 34th. She finished 37th last week at Atlanta and missed the last 20 laps or so. I haven't been able to find a full explanation for why she parked early, although I saw one note saying she was "too slow" so maybe she ran out of tires and fell below the minimum speed. She finished 26th at Charlotte a few weeks ago and that's closer to a typical race for her.
• Tanner Gray $5,500 - This is another guy who is badly under priced.  The #15 team is a high quality team and it's a Top 15 or so type truck. In three races at 1.5 mile tracks this season, Tanner has finished 8th, 20th and 11th. The 8th and 11th place finishes were a bit lucky since he ran most of the race a few spots behind that and got some breaks at the end of the race. But, even if you more conservatively project him to finish around 15th, that would give you 34 points and a 6+x return on the salary. Homestead was one of three races Gray ran last year for the same DGR-Crosley team and he finished 16th. Will be very heavily owned.
  
• Ty Majeski $6,400 - Another salary I don't get. Ty has finished 13th, 8th and 20th in the three races as 1.5 mile tracks this season. The 13th and 8th are legitimate finishes as his average running position throughout those races was right about where he finished. So there is clearly 10th place or so upside here. Even putting him 15th gives him 35 points and a 5+x return. This is a Niece Motorsports truck which is a top tier team and championship contender with Ross Chastain this season.
• Brennan Poole, Austin Wayne Self and Jordan Anderson $6,700 - $7,000 - All of these guys have a decent shot at a Top 20 finish. Poole has the most upside and ran really well at the 1.5 mile tracks last year. He and Self both have two finishes inside the Top 20 in the three races at 1.5 mile tracks this season. Anderson has had some really bad luck this year. He did finish 20th at Las Vegas, but was 31st and 38th the last two races with major issues. I'd say Poole and Self are better for cash games with Anderson as a lower owned pivot off them in larger tournaments.

Bets

• I have Kyle -117 to win the race from earlier in the week. May add more plays before Saturday.