I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion. I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup. I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time. I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly. I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!
I'm really looking forward to four races this weekend -- especially at a track like Homestead where we have multiple grooves and have seen some pretty good racing action. But I think we've also got to be prepared for rain delays, postponements or scheduling changes. That's a near certainty with anything scheduled for a Summer afternoon in South Florida. Fortunately, the track has lights.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the conditions this weekend will be much different then we normally have in Homestead. In the past, the Homestead weekend was the last weekend of the season. It was in November, it was cooler and the races would tend to finish in the dark under the lights. This weekend, everything except this Trucks Series race is an afternoon race that should be run in mostly sunshine or at least daylight conditions.
For the Trucks race, I see this one shaping up the same way as Atlanta. You can scroll down to read that analysis for more background. I'm likely to take two of the Big Three and then fill in with the many cheap plays available starting farther back in the field. There are a number of pretty bad pricing errors that make this strategy easy to implement this week. I am concerned about mass duplicate or overlapping lineups in cash games. I never like when we see lots of duplicates or ties or where many teams have four or five drivers in common since it turns those contests into a 1-on-1 or 2-on-2 driver match up which can be very random.
The Big Three are obviously Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain. I said last week even before Austin Hill won that the #16 team has an elite 1.5 mile track program. But Kyle and Chase are still faster then the #16 team and should prevail if they are mistake free. For example, in Atlanta, Kyle ran 39 fastest laps, Chase ran 22 fastest laps and Austin Hill had only 10. I would expect Kyle and Chase to eat up about 75% of the fastest laps and laps led points and it would be really hard to overcome that advantage if you're not using at least one -- and probably both -- of them.
Last week, I decided to use Ross Chastain with Kyle Busch because I didn't feel comfortable with the rest of my lineup if I used an additional $1700 to get up to Chase Elliott instead of Ross. In addition, Ross was starting 27th last week, so I was projecting him for a minimum of +20 position difference. We've got a little different story this week because we have a lot of viable cheap plays and Ross is starting much further forward in the 15th position. Realistically, this caps his position difference upside at about +10. And I don't think we see Ross leading laps again this week. That was great for my lineup in Atlanta but not something I projected or expected.
Who are the options to go with your two studs:
My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games. This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games.