homestead - xfinity

This is one of my favorite races of the season. The Xfinity cars at Homestead can really put on a show because you've got multiple grooves of racing and a super high line right against the wall that gets faster and faster as the run goes on. Two of the drivers in this race -- Tyler Reddick and Noah Gragson -- are really, really good at running that super high line, so it will be fun to watch them compete on Saturday and work their way forward from bad starting spots.

Here's how I see the best cash lineup breaking down:

• Start with Reddick and Gragson -- These are "no brainer" plays to me. Both guys have race winning potential and should run some fastest laps along the wall. They are also starting really far back in the field (38th for Reddick and 23rd for Gragson), so they offer huge position difference upside as well. Both should be near 100% ownership in cash games. ADDED SATURDAY MORNING - I SHOULD HAVE ADDED THAT REDDICK IS IN AN OUR MOTORSPORTS CAR, WHICH IS NOT AN ELITE TEAM. IT COULD BE A TOP 5-8 CAR, BUT AN UNLIKELY RACE WINNER. STILL PLENTY OF + POSITION DIFFERENCE AND SOME FASTEST LAPS TO HIT VALUE.
• Pick one of A.J. Allmendinger or Riley Herbst -- In Race 2 here last year, Allmendinger started 38th and finished 4th. Herbst had two Top 10 finishes here last year. Herbst is now in the #98 car, which was super fast with Chase Briscoe behind the wheel here last year. Neither is likely to lead a lot of laps or run a bunch of fastest laps. We're really looking for a Top 5-10 finish and the + position difference that comes with that with Allmendinger starting 24th and Herbst starting 29th. Allmendinger is the better driver and safer play. Herbst is a little more risky, but offers the same position difference upside for $2,300 less salary.
• Round it out from this list:
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt -- starts 36th, had experience at this track, should finish around 20th if the car has no issues
  • Ryan Vargas -- starts 35th, same team as Earnhardt with about the same expectations
  • Jade Buford -- starts 31st, been pretty impressive at road course races but this will be his first oval race
  • J.J. Yeley -- starts 39th, ran 11th in Race 1 here last year in essentially the same car, probably the best choice for the salary in this tier
  • Colby Howard -- car is the most reliable of the remaining options, should be able to gain 5 spots or so if no issues
  • Tommy Joe Martins -- a little riskier play, but has Top 20 upside - finished 20th in Race 2 here last year, but had mechanical issues in Race 1
  • David Starr, Chad Finchum, Timmy Hill -- These are the MBM cars and we never know if they might park or break down. I think Starr is going to have Whataburger sponsorship and try to run the race. He said his transmission broke last week and that ended his race. It was not a start and park. Hill is the most likely to park since he's in the #66, which almost always parked last season regardless of driver. I don't have a good read on Finchum.
  • Bayley Currey -- will be ok if the car doesn't break down
  • Dexter Bean and Stefan Parsons -- They shouldn't park, but have very limited upside of about +5 spots