Homestead Xfinity 1

Read my Homestead Trucks post below to get a little more background about the weekend. A key factor in the Xfinity race is this is the first time this is a Summer day time race. In past seasons, this was the last race of the season in November and typically finished late in the day under the lights. In a Summer day time race, the track is probably going to have a lot less grip and be very slick. There is a lot of inexperience in this field, so I'm inclined to stick to as many veteran guys as I can since they'll be best suited to deal with tricky conditions without any practice.

At the high end of the salary range, I really like Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric. It's realistic to project them both for Top 5 finishes with laps led and fastest laps.

• Briscoe has been really good all season long. He holds his own on the track and his crew does a great job getting him a few positions on pit road. Once he gets out front, he usually stays there for a while. He is also one of the guys who likes to run a higher line near the wall which is the fastest way around this track.
• Cindric -- as I noted before last week's Atlanta race -- has been the most productive driver on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. At Las Vegas, he finished 2nd, led 39 laps and ran 22 fastest laps for 67 DK points. At Charlotte, he finished 3rd, led 30 laps and ran 18 fastest laps for 61 DK points. At Atlanta, he had the best car most of the day, but lost some spots and pit road and then got a speeding penalty on pit road late in the race. On the day, he finished 16th, but had already racked up 68 laps led and 41 fastest laps for 41 DK points. If he would have closed it out with a Top 5 finish, you're looking at almost 80 DK points.
• Dale Jr - He's in the #8 car which is normally Daniel Hemric's ride. This is a really fast car with Hemric finishing 2nd at Charlotte and 4th at Atlanta. With slick track conditions, no practice and Dale's long layoff, I do think he'll take it easy for the first half of the race. He has race winning upside for sure, but I'm not confident he can get the laps led or fastest laps he would need to pay off the most expensive salary on the slate.
• Justin Allgaier - He's fine and has some upside starting 11th, but he's another guy that I don't see getting a lot of fastest laps or laps led. He's best at the shorter tracks and just doesn't have a very good dominator history at the 1.5 mile tracks. Could be a Top 5 car, so will score points and get some + position difference but I don't know if it will be enough.
• Harrison Burton and Noah Gragson - Either one could lead early, but I don't think either one is finishing this race 1st or 2nd. And having Ross Chastain starting behind them in 3rd really worries me. We've seen Ross be very (overly?) aggressive trying to pass and get out front. It wouldn't surprise me if aggressive racing from Ross sends one or both of these guys down out of the Top 5 very early in the race. That would all but end their chances of getting us a good return on their salaries.

In the middle of the pack, I like Anthony Alfredo, Joe Graf Jr and Justin Haley.

• Alfredo is in the #21 again this week which has consistently been at least a Top 15 -- if not Top 10 -- car. In his three races in the #21 this year, Alfredo finished 6th at Auto Club, 14th at Darlington and 10th last week at Atlanta. That's the range I'd expect him in this week too and a finish of 12th or better gets him over the 5x return we're looking for.
• Graf seems to be improving and the #08 car is pretty reliable in the scheme of things. We'd be looking for a Top 20 finish and Graf has already done that twice at the 1.5 mile tracks this season -- 20th at Las Vegas and 19th at Charlotte.
• I'm not sure why Justin Haley is $6,700. He already has three Top 5 finishes this season, including a season best 3rd place finish at Atlanta last week. I view his as a Top 8 car at the 1.5 mile tracks. At this salary, he only needs to hold his 10th starting spot to hit a 5x return.

Extreme salary save options are Colin Garrett, Colby Howard and B.J. McLeod

• Garrett ran here last year and finished 21st. It's a very small team that runs a limited schedule. But when they do run they go all out and try to finish and finish well. Starting 37th, there's nowhere to go but up. Repeating a 21st place finish would be ideal, but even a more realistic 25th place finish gives us a 5x return.
• Howard in the #15 car has run into more issues then we're used to with this reasonably solid J.D. Motorsports team. But they've performed in the last two weeks with a 19th place finish at Bristol and a lead lap 15th place finish at Atlanta last week. His average running position in the Atlanta race was 20th, which is very encouraging heading into another comparable track this week. I think a 20th-25th place finish is a reasonable expectation here.
• McLeod has been a fringe Top 20 car since returning from the layoff. At $5,200, he does about all we need by not going backward from his 22nd starting spot. Does carry some downside starting up in 22nd, but the salary also allows you more flexibility elsewhere. I don't know if you have to go this low on the salary scale this week in cash games, but it's an option you have.