indy cup

As with Xfinity, it's hard to get too deep without starting positions, but here are some notes and ideas about how I'm leaning heading into qualifying Sunday morning. I wouldn't go too crazy relying on practice times since it was their first exposure to the track and a short practice where most guys ran only about 15 laps. But it is some extra information.

• Chase Elliott -- Consistently awesome at the road courses. He ran well in the Xfinity race Saturday and just having those laps of experience gives him a big leg up on the field. Strong case to play him no matter where he starts. If he's up front, he can lead laps and get fastest laps. If he's back in the pack at all, he has place differential upside.
• Kyle Larson -- A stud anywhere. Slight underdog to me since he has no race experience at this road course. But he was 3rd quick in Saturday's practice.
• Denny Hamlin -- Two consecutive (and three total) Top 5 finishes at road courses this season. 4th fastest in practice.
• Austin Cindric -- Won Saturday's Xfinity race and was probably the best car at last year's Xfinity race as well. He is simply really, really good here. He was 5th fastest in Saturday's Cup Series practice.
• Christopher Bell -- 2nd and 7th place finishes at the last two road course races to go along with his win earlier this year at the Daytona road course. 6th fastest in Saturday's practice.
• A.J. Allmendinger -- Top 4 finishes at both Xfinity races at the Indy road course. Always a threat at any road course. But has been terrible on pit road in his Cup races.
• Kevin Harvick -- Don't really love it, but this is incredible. Kevin Harvick is $8k. He did get to run some extra laps in Xfinity practice on Friday, but it hurt to get knocked out in Lap 1 of Saturday's race. I probably won't go here, but I just had to mention how crazy this is.
• Love the $7k range.
  • Chase Briscoe $7,900 -- Won the Xfinity race here last year. 6th, 6th and 9th place finishes at three of the last four road course races this season.
  • Ross Chastain $7,700 -- 4th, 7th, 7th and 12th in the last four road course races this season. Was 6th in the Xfinity race last year on the Indy road course. It is big that Briscoe and Chastain have a full race of experience here -- albeit in an Xfinity car.
  • Tyler Reddick $7,600 -- Top 10 finishes at three of the last four road course races this season.
  • Matt DiBenedetto $7,400 -- 10th and 11th in the last two road course races. Probably my least favorite in this group, but still an option depending on starting spot.
  • Michael McDowell $7,200 -- He's always been a strong road course racer but has struggled since finishing in the Top 10 at the first two road courses this season. He was 14th fastest in practice on Saturday.
  • Chris Buescher $7,100 -- On a streak of fifteen (15!!!) consecutive Top 20 finishes at road course races. He's not going to get you a Top 10, but something in the 15th-20th is as safe a bet as there is in this field.
• Nothing really sticks out in the cheaper range. That might sort itself out in qualifying. Of the guys down there, here's who I'm most interested in:
  • Cole Custer -- Crashed in the rain at COTA, but has Top 20 finishes in the four other road course races. 12th fastest in Saturday's practice.
  • Austin Dillon -- Got experience in the Xfinity race on Saturday and has four consecutive Top 15 finishes at road courses this season.
  • Corey LaJoie -- Solid finishes at the last four road course races and was 15th fastest in Saturday's practice. He pitted on the last lap last week to tighten lug nuts or he would have had a Top 20 run.

Bets

• C. Bell +1800 to win
• C. Bell -150 W. Byron
• Maybe more to come