indy xfinity

This week I'm going to focus more on overall lineup strategy and how I see the race playing out as opposed to identifying specific drivers I'm targeting.  As you'll see from the article, so much depends on starting position and how you see the race playing out that it doesn't make sense to talk names until we have a starting order.

• This will be the third Xfinity race using the low horsepower, high down force package at Indianapolis.  This package slows the cars down from about 185 mph average lap speed to about 165 mph average lap speed.  The cars are full throttle throughout almost the entire lap leaving less control to the driver and leaving more to luck, mechanical issues, traffic and caution/pit timing.
• In the last two races here, we have not seen a single driver score 20+ dominator points for laps led plus fastest laps.  Instead, these points have been spread out among numerous drivers in the top quarter of the field.
  • In 2017, the top lap leaders led 44, 26 and 22 laps. In 2018, the top lap leaders led 41, 21 and 13 laps. It's a small sample size for sure, but it does show very similar outcomes. And it makes sense that we're unlikely to see a true dominator here under this rules package because the field stays packed together, a draft and sling shot move is possible and we have different pit strategies that could move the field around depending upon the timing of stops and cautions, etc.
  • Fastest laps have been even more spread out.  In 2017, the top fastest lap scorers had 17, 12 and 9 fastest laps and a good chunk of other drivers scored 4-8 fastest laps.  In 2018, not a single driver posted more than 10 fastest laps and each of the Top 6 finishers scored between 5-10 fastest laps.
  • At the end of the day, the top dominator in 2017 was Kyle Busch -- but he only scored 19.5 dominator points. He had 44 laps led (11 points) and 17 fastest laps (8.5 points).  In 2016, the top dominator was Justin Allgaier with 41 laps led (10.25 points) and 8 fastest laps (4 points) for 14.25 dominator points.
  • So that tells me we need to focus less on dominator points and more on raw finishing position and grabbing guys with some position difference upside.  And we need to try like heck to avoid anyone losing positions as that will just kill a lineup in these lower scoring races.
• Another thing to note is that last year's race was a caution filled mess.  31 of 100 laps were run under caution and the average green flag run was less then 10 laps.  There were 4 cautions for accidents, 16 of 40 cars were OUT by the end of the race and only 16 of 40 cars were on the lead lap at the end of the race -- which is saying something given how long each lap takes, how many cautions there were and how many lucky dogs were available.  Finally, 4 cars that started in the Top 10 finished outside the Top 20.
  • The 2017 race was more tame.  Only 6 cars were OUT at the end of the race and there were about 20 caution laps.  But we still only had 19 cars finish on the lead lap.  And 3 cars that started in the Top 10 finished outside the Top 20.
  • So this tells me we might want to consider being a bit more conservative with the lineup.  We're not going all the way to a plate track approach, but we need to know the races with this package can turn pretty crazy and create huge negative point differential days for what are normally Top 10 cars.
• Lastly, our start and park cars.  #13 Finchum, #17 Weatherman, #38 Yeley and #89 Shepherd look like early parks.  #74 Harmon might run a bit longer, but I don't think he runs to the end. 
  • #93 Bilicki is a frequent start and park, but I'm pretty sure he's good to go the whole distance this week.  He has a sponsor and full pit crew on the roster.
  • I'll also include my weekly note about the MBM cars -- #35 Gase, #61 Hill and #66 Martins.  I think all these guys are planning to run the full race but this team seems to be hit with multiple mechanical or other issues each week.  I've all but removed this team from cash game consideration unless they are starting really, really far back in the field.  For tournaments, I think Hill is probably too expensive for what you get, but I'd have no problem with Gase or Martins as near minimum price options for tournaments only.  Martins would be my top choice.
    • On a weekly basis, cars from BJ McLeod's team (#5, #78 and #99) or JD Motorsports (#01, #4 and #15) are available for similar prices and have proven to be far more reliable.  I'd stick with them in cash 50/50 games.