indy Xfinity

Xfinity is really goofy this week.

First, pricing is crazy. There are way too many good cars/drivers priced under $6,500 to where it's pretty easy to stack the three studs -- Austin Cindric, AJ Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs -- with three cheaper guys and still make a really good lineup top to bottom. Whether we want to do that, or take a more balanced approach, will be determined by qualifying.

Second, we've got 40+ entries for 36 spots with race day qualifying. So we'll have a lot of cars that don't make the race and likely some decent cars that get a bad lap in qualifying and start towards the back. How qualifying shakes out will, in large part, determine how we want to build our lineups.

It's hard to know what will be most useful come Saturday afternoon, but here are some notes to help you sort things out after qualifying --

• Austin Cindric is the man here. He was dominant last year and would have been even more dominant if he didn't get a bogus restart penalty that sent him to the rear. He was fastest by a lot in Friday's practice. Likely lap leader and favorite to win.
• Ty Gibbs and AJ Allmendinger are the only two guys in the same area code as Cindric. Gibbs as been so impressive this year at the road courses and AJ is always good at the road courses. If something goes wrong for Cindric, these guys become the favorites. Depending on pit cycling, etc., they could lead at times. They'd be the favorites to finish 2nd and 3rd. They will probably start close to the front, so it might be tough to use them in cash games if you agree that Cindric will lead the bulk of the laps.
• Kevin Harvick is eye candy. He's not going to lead laps and only comes into play if he is starting way back in the field.
• Justin Haley has Top 5 potential and could come into play if he qualifies outside the Top 10. He finished 2nd here last year, but that was probably inflated a couple of spots. He's finished inside the Top 10 at all five road courses this season.
• Andy Lally and Preston Pardus might be too expensive, but I feel like they're both pretty reliable road course racers that can pay off if their qualifying spot isn't too high. Lally did not run here last year. Pardus finished 10th here last year.
• Sage Karam has a ton of road course experience, including several Indy Car races at this Indy road course. He may qualify too well to be a viable play, but he is on the radar. I also don't fully trust the #31 car. Eric Jones had a brake failure in this car last week.
• I love the Jade Buford, Jeremy Clements and Brett Moffitt clump. All have Top 15ish potential and are pretty reliable options. Clements was 13th and Buford was 14th here last year.
• Brandon Brown and Josh Williams are ridiculously under priced. Brown has Top 12 finishes at four of the five road course races this year and finished 11th here last year. Williams has Top 17 finishes in his four road course races this year and finished 22nd here last year.
  • Ryan Sieg is another super cheap option, but I feel like he's always a more risky play because of the crazy strategies they try sometimes. He's essentially in a must win scenario to make the playoffs, so there's even more incentive to take a swing at a wild strategy.

Bets

• Gragson +115 Hemric
• That's all I've got in play right now. There might be more Saturday afternoon.