indy xfinity

I'll have more up Friday, but I wanted to post about my concern after seeing the starting order. I'm really, really worried about the initial start. The first two rows are full of guys who are just not road course racers. Jeb Burton has never done a road course. Annett, Jones and Sieg have experience, but none of it is very good. No wins and barely any Top 10 finishes. All of this on a brand new road course the series has never been to. If we have a repeat of Pocono with numerous cautions early, I wouldn't at all be surprised.

Friday Update
Still very worried about the initial start after seeing practice times. The front four are literally 2+ seconds per lap off the fastest times, so they are really going to bottle things up. Allmendinger should be fine because I think he can be a little bit patient and let the field start to spread out a bit before making his move to the front. Once things are spaced out, he'll be 2+ seconds per lap quicker then everyone he'll be racing and they'll let him by. Up front, I'm worried about guys like Allgaier, Gragson, Cindric, Chastain and Brisoce. They'll be much faster then the guys starting up front and will need some patience to pass at the right times so they don't end up running off the track or getting damage that will effect their speed. You can't avoid all those guys, it's just something to be aware of.

Here's how I'm looking at my cash game and 50/50 lineups:

• It's really hard to pass on A.J. Allmendinger and Austin Cindric. They were both at least half a second to a full second faster per lap then anyone else in Friday's practices. It's likely one of them wins the race.
• I would also think Josh Bilicki will be highly owned. He's got a decent track record at the road courses and has a lot of experience on them. He's not in the best equipment in the #99 car, but he starts 36th, so offers plenty of upside with very little risk.
• At the bottom of the salary structure, Stephen Leicht and Preston Pardus are in play.
  • Leicht is in the #61 MBM car this weekend and that team usually tries to run the full race. You never can be 100% certain though with MBM and they also tend to have more reliability concerns overall. If he does go the distance, finishing around 20th is possible.
  • Pardus is a road course specialist. He did two road course races last year for his own family owned team. This year, he's with a more established team that should bring a good car to the track. Pardus ran 10th and 13th in practices on Friday. Any finish where he doesn't go back from his 19th starting spot would be a big win at his $4,900 salary. More upside and more downside as compared to Leicht. 
• Here are some guys in the middle tier I like:
  • Jeremy Clements -- In the four road courses last year, he finished 12th, 11th, 8th and 11th. The year before that, he finished all four road course races between 12th and 18th. In total, he has nine road course races in a row with Top 18 finishes and in seven of those races, they've been Top 14 finishes.
  • Alex Labbe -- A similar strong record in recent road courses. In six such races over the last two seasons, he's finished 19th, 9th, 16th, 13th, 17th and 6th.
  • Brandon Gdovic -- This is a career road course racer making his first start in any NASCAR series. He ran a total of 12 practice laps on Friday and was 19th and 20th on the speed chart. 
  • Timmy Hill -- Finished 27th and 18th in his two road course races last year. He ran 24th in first practice and 20th in final practice on Friday. 
  • Myatt Snider -- This one worries me a bit because he doesn't have much road course experience. He was 25th in first practice and 18th in final practice. So we'd be hoping for something just inside the Top 20. 
  • Justin Haley -- Maybe getting above the mid-tier here, but I like Haley to contend for a Top 5 finish here. He had finishes of 9th and 6th on road courses last year. He was 4th in first practice and 3rd in final practice. I also liked seeing him run 10 consecutive laps in final practice. He was one of only three drivers (Cindric and Allgaier were the others) to do so.

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