iowa trucks

A few Friday night updates in bold type:

200 laps of action for the Trucks Series on Saturday night from Iowa Speedway.  It is a really compressed schedule with two practice sessions, qualifying and the race all on Saturday.  I'm not going to be able to get you much information on Saturday so I'm posting these notes of some thoughts heading into the weekend:

• In the last two Iowa races, there has been extremely high attrition.  In 2018, only 22 of the 32 trucks were still running at the end of the race.  In 2017, only 19 of the 32 trucks were still running at the end.  This has allowed some back markers to score really well just by staying around to finish the race even if several laps down.  Just last year, Norm Benning started 30th and finished 20th.  And Jennifer Jo Cobb started 31st and finished 22nd.  (Contrast the last two Iowa races with the 2016 race where 29 of the 32 trucks were still running at the end.)
  • I expect the high attrition rate to continue this year because a good chunk of the field is very green in the Truck Series.  By my count, we have 11 of 34 drivers that have no (or only a handful) of starts in the Truck Series -- Trey Hutchens (2 starts), Juan Gonzalez (0), Raphael Lessard (2), Daniel Sasnett (1), CJ McLaughlin (0), Mason Massey (0), Kyle Benjamin (3), Riley Herbst (5), Chandler Smith (0), Tyler Hill (1) and Lou Goss (0).  The only drivers from this list I might consider for a cash game are Lessard, Benjamin, Herbst and Smith.  But, even with them, they aren't overly cheap and still carry a good deal of risk.  I'll most likely be looking to stick with the handful of veteran drivers priced below this group of rookies.  Update: It looks like Sasnett has withdrawn, so we've got 10 of 33 drivers with little or no experience in the Truck Series.
  • With 33 entries, we will have 1 Truck DNQ and a 32 Truck race field.  
• A lot of who to use on the top end will depend on who shows long run speed in practice on Saturday.  Here are a few notes on past performance to keep in mind and help inform who you want to pick on the top end:
  • Brett Moffitt won the Iowa race last year from the 16th starting spot.  He led 76 laps and had 16 fastest laps.  He hasn't been great the last two weeks, though, with two finishes outside the Top 10.  He does, however, have a 2nd and 3rd place finish at the two shorter tracks the Trucks have raced at this season (Martinsville and Dover).
  • Harrison Burton started from pole last year at Iowa, finished 3rd, led 30 laps and scored a race high 37 fastest laps.  He really hasn't shown the speed you'd expect from a KBM truck this season.  For the entire year, he has only 2 laps led and only 23 fastest laps run.  That needs to change after seeing a retired guy like Greg Biffle come into the same equipment and win last week at Texas.
  • Stewart Friesen finished 9th last year at Iowa, but had the second most laps led (48) and added 15 fastest laps.
  • Johnny Sauter is coming into this race with three straight finishes outside the Top 10 this season.  In the last three races, he's led a combined total of only 4 laps and run a combined total of only 12 fastest laps.  He does, however, have Top 5 finishes in the last two Iowa races.
  • On the flip side of Sauter, Austin Hill comes in with 4 straight Top 8 finishes this season.  The team is showing good speed and Austin has scored 43 or more DK points in the last 4 races.  He finished 14th at Iowa last year, but now drives with Brett Moffit's former team that won this race last year.  I really like Austin this week.
  • Ross Chastain is a model of consistency.  He has finished in the Top 10 in all nine Truck races this year and has 40 or more DK points in every single race.  A cash game staple because he usually doesn't qualify above the 10-12 range either.
  • Matt Crafton has 7 straight Top 8 finishes this season and he's finished in the Top 8 in all but one race this season.  Another solid (albeit more expensive) conservative cash game option.
  • Grant Enfinger has 6 straight Top 9 finishes this season and he's finished in the Top 9 in all but one race this season.  He also has 12+ fastest laps in 4 of the last 5 races and multiple laps led in all those races.  He's scored 51+ DK popints in 4 of the last 6 races.
• Here are the middle/lower tier drivers I'll be watching most closely.  I've listed them in roughly the order from most likely I will use them to least likely -- given their combined salary and expected performance.  So it's not a straight ranking of how well I think they'll do.  Obviously, starting spot can really change up the order here:
  • Jess Little -- Under priced because he doesn't run a full schedule.  In the last 2 years at Iowa, he's finished 9th and 6th.  He hasn't been as strong as normal this year, but he does have 38+ DK points in 2 of his last 3 races this season.
  • Jennifer Jo Cobb/Norm Benning -- Very likely one of the two will be my punt/salary saver play.  Possible one doesn't make the race though.  If they race, they should be able to outlast many of the green rookie drivers listed above.
  • I'm moving Chandler Smith up my list.  He won the ARCA race on Friday night in Wisconsin.  He's entered 5 ARCA races this year and won 2 of them.  He's finished 3rd, 4th and 4th in the other 3.  Last year, in 9 ARCA races, he had 2 wins and 6 Top 5 finishes.  He's considered one of Toyota's top driver prospects and he'll be in KBM equipment.  To top it off, his crew chief is Rudy Fugle, who is probably the best crew chief in the Trucks garage.  Fugle has done all of Kyle Busch's races this year and was Biffle's crew chief for his win last week at Texas.  For $7,000, it's a good package to get.
  • Jordan Anderson -- He has 3 straight Top 15 finishes this season.  He's scored 34, 42 and 44 DK points in the last 3 races.  He usually races better then he qualifies, so that helps as well.
  • Kyle Benjamin -- Was out early last week with a 31st place finish.  He's got ability and is with a solid team (#45 Niece truck) with Chastain as a teammate.  Depends on practice showing and starting spot.
  • Riley Herbst and Chandler Smith (moved Smith up) -- Anyone in a KBM truck has to be in consideration.  Simply put, they'll be in some of the best equipment out there.  Herbst has ability -- for example, he started 9th and finished 6th at Iowa in a JGR Xfinity car last year -- but has tended to be a bit mistake prone early in his career.  Smith is running his first truck race, which makes me very nervous in a cash game setting.  But, he's been impressive in the ARCA series winning numerous poles and winning three races while running a part time schedule this year and last.  He finished 2nd in the ARCA race at Iowa last season.
  • Raphael Lessard -- He has two decent runs in KBM trucks earlier this season.  He's in this race in the #17 DGR truck.  This truck has 4 Top 10 finishes in the last 7 races -- including a 3rd place finish last week with Tyler Ankrum.  I like Lessard's potential here, but the price is a little higher then I'd like it.  Still an option depending on other value and starting spot.
  • Tyler Ankrum -- would be a great value at $6,600, but it looks like he's sitting out this race for lack of sponsorship.  I was using the preliminary entry list for the original write up.  As a reader pointed out in the comments, the updated final entry list shows Ankrum in the 87 Truck for Joe Nemechek.  I agree with the comment to use caution here.  I haven't been able to find out much about this entry.  If it's still Nemechek equipment, I'm not very excited about it.  Watch carefully how much he runs in practice.  If he runs only a few laps, it's a good indicator that it's Nemechek equipment and he's questionable at best to run a full race.