iowa xfinity

Saturday Morning Update In Bold At The Bottom

The Xfinity Series has a stand alone race in Iowa on Saturday.  This series was here just a few weeks ago in mid-June.  In that race, Christopher Bell dominated most of the race with 186 of 250 total laps led and 116 fastest laps.  The only car anywhere near him was Cole Custer, who led 59 laps and ran 50 fastest laps.  However, Custer only led if/when he had the preferred outside line on a restart.  This happened at the beginning of the race and again part way through the race when he beat Bell off pit road.  Each time Bell methodically worked his way up to and past Custer and then drove away from him.  Bell had the best car by a pretty sizable margin.

This was the second consecutive win at Iowa for Bell as he won the July 2018 race there as well.  It was also the second consecutive Iowa race where Bell and Custer were the dominators.  In that July 2018 race, Bell led 94 laps and had 50 fastest laps.  Custer had 104 laps led and 49 fastest laps.

Heading into the weekend, I expect much of the same with Bell and Custer leading the way.  The safest bet is probably to plan on rostering both of them, grabbing two salary savers and then filling it out with a couple of mid-pack guys who offer some position difference upside.  The only scenario I can see changing this approach would be if one or more good cars qualifies near the back and offers elite +25-30 position difference upside.

Here's a few other drivers of note heading into the weekend.  I'll add some additional driver notes/targets after we see practice on Friday:

• Tyler Reddick -- In five Iowa Xfinity races, he has only two Top 10 finishes and no laps led.  In the June race this year, he had a bad tire (apparently a Goodyear defect) and went multiple laps down having to address the problem.  Even before that, however, he was nowhere near Bell or Custer.  In the first stint, for example, Reddick started 5th, but was back to 10th position nearly 10 seconds behind the leaders after 30 laps.  
• Justin Allgaier -- He has a very strong history here.  In the June race, he started 14th but finished 3rd.  However, he didn't lead any laps and had only 2 fastest laps.  In 2018, he won the June race, while leading 182 laps and running 53 fastest laps.  In July 2018, he finished 2nd, but with only 6 laps led and 8 fastest laps.  He will likely deliver a very strong finishing position, but will also likely fail to deliver the needed laps led and fastest laps to justify his salary.
• Four other cars stood out in the June race and are ones I'll be watching closely:
  • Noah Gragson -- He had a very fast car and was in 3rd place about 5 seconds behind Custer and Bell 30 laps into the June race.  Soon after that, he had a loose wheel and fell multiple laps down fixing that.  He eventually got back on the lead lap following a series of late cautions and finished 6th.  He'll probably start too high to give him upside.
  • Zane Smith -- Will be in the #8 for JR Motorsports just like he was for the June race.  He finished 5th in that race and was running in the Top 5 a good chunk of the day.  Like Gragson, he will probably start too high to give him much upside.
  • Harrison Burton/Riley Herbst -- Burton was in the #18 Joe Gibbs car in June and ran very well.  He started 10th, finished 4th and ran in the Top 5-6 most of the day.  Herbst will be in this car for this race.  $8,100 is a great price to get for one of the top cars in the field.  But Herbst really hasn't done much with this ride.  In six races this year, he has only one Top 10 finish -- a 9th at Richmond after starting on the pole.  You'd expect to see much more.
  • Jeremy Clements -- He started 13th and finished 12th in the June race.  That doesn't sound so great, but he was the only car not with a fully funded team that stayed on the lead lap all race long.  Gray Gaulding also finished on the lead lap -- but only after getting 2 laps back as the Lucky Dog on back-to-back cautions late in the race.  Clements was the only guy from a smaller team who was legitimately on the lead lap all race.  (Also of note, Clements has finished in the Top 15 in the last six races this season and Top 18 in the last nine races this season.  He's about as consistent as they come right now -- although he typically qualifies well enough to blunt any position difference upside he might otherwise have.)

More to come after Friday's practices.

Saturday Morning Update:

• Continue to be all in on C Bell as the lead dog.  Top single lap speed in Practice 1 and top 10 lap speed in Final Practice.
• Custer a bit off.  Still think he's the next best, but Reddick creeping closer.  Extremely unlikely anyone else would win the race or dominate laps led/fastest laps points.
  
• Like the price and speed combo in the $8K-$9K range -- especially Sieg, Z. Smith and Gragson.  Herbst and B Jones much more risky.
  
• Dillon Bassett, Ryan Vargas, Matt Mills and Vinnie Miller safest options at the low end.