iowa xfinity

We don't have a whole lot to go on here because they had only one rain shortened practice on Saturday.  I'll give you the rundown on who I'm most interested in pending their qualifying spot on Sunday:

• At the top end, I like Christopher Bell the best.  Last year, he started the June race from the rear and came all the way through the field to finish 2nd.  In July, he started 3rd, led 94 laps, and won the race.  He had the best 10 lap run during Saturday's practice.  He's continued to lead laps and score multiple fastest laps in almost every race this season, and I'd expect that to continue on Sunday.  His success at shorter tracks like Iowa is well documented and I'm not going to bet against him despite some disappointing finishes in the last few weeks.
• The other guy I like at the top is Justin Allgaier.  It's no knock on Reddick or Custer -- either one of which could win on Sunday.  Allgaier is just at the top of his game at Iowa.  Last year in the June race, he started 11th, charged to the lead and led 182 laps on his way to the victory.  In the second Iowa race last year, he finished 2nd.  The year before, he also led 100+ laps.  He's been showing better speed in recent weeks and has Top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 4 races.
  • As between Reddick and Custer, I'd take Custer.  He's been really good at the short tracks this year and Reddick was a bit off in single lap time and 10 lap average in practice on Saturday.  Also, Custer did lead 104 laps in the second Iowa race last year -- although he faded to finish 9th.  In four Iowa races, Reddick has yet to lead a single lap.
• Still in the top range, but a bit cheaper, John Hunter Nemechek and Justin Haley are guys to keep in mind.  Both participated in a tire test at Iowa earlier this year.  (Bell, Reddick and Custer also participated.)  All of those guys have a bit of an advantage with the extra track time -- especially since they only had 35 minutes of practice on Saturday before the rain hit.
• In the middle salary range, I like Zane Smith.  He's been solid in the #8 car three times this season.  This is a top end ride in JR Motorsports equipment.  In his three races this year, Smith has finished 11th, 6th and 9th and scored 39, 44 and 33 DK points.  
• I'm not really loving anyone else in the middle range.
  • I always have some interest in Josh Williams because he's pretty solid, but the price has climbed to a season high $7,100.  Absent a really bad qualifying spot, it can be hard to score enough to justify that salary since he lacks laps led and fastest lap upside.
  • Jeremy Clements has finished in the Top 16 the last three weeks and he has Top 20 finishes in 5 of the last 6 Iowa races.  But he, too, lacks laps led or fastest lap potential.
  • Shane Lee is an interesting guy.  He did both Iowa races in an RCR car last year and finished 16th and 13th.  His is now with the new #28 team which is running its first race on Sunday.  They have Circuit City sponsorship and appear to be well funded.  They ran 24 laps in practice and were 15th in single lap average.  They did not run 10 consecutive laps to show up on that chart.  Unless they qualify way back, it's probably too risky to take him in cash games, but I wanted to mention him and the new team.
• In the under $7K range, there's a few guys I might look to.
  • Stephen Leicht has moved up into the top JD Motorsports car (#4) to replace Ross Chastain.  He had been running pretty well lately in the #01 car, so I expect that to continue moving up to the top ride.  He was 18th in single lap time during practice.
  • Ray Black, Jr., Vinnie Miller and Matt Mills are other possibilities.  At least we know these teams try to run a full race.  Miller and Mills in particular tend to qualify very poorly so carry little risk of negative position difference.
    
  • Possibly Tyler Matthews if he qualifies poorly.  He's in the #15 car that usually has BJ McLeod in it.  This is another team that seems to try to finish every race.  At $5K, he might be worth the flexibility it can give you at other spots.  Matthews was in this car in Richmond, where he started 23rd and finished 24th for 19 DK points.  If he qualifies a bit further back, I'm more interested.
  • The rest of the group is just completely hit or miss with many of the teams not buying a full allotment of tires because they're not running the whole race.  I'm completely out on the MBM group (Hill, Finchum, Gase) because they've just been terrible and seem to have a major issue or employ a start and park every week.