Atlanta cup

If you follow me on Twitter @dfsnascarguy you know it's been a great weekend so far with big wins in the Truck and Xfinity races on Saturday. That's four in a row dating back to last week's Bristol sweep. We've had a good run here in cash games, but I'm changing course a bit for Sunday because of how crazy the DK pricing is. Here's where I'm going:

First, the crazy DK pricing. A host of guys are wildly under priced, including Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Eric Jones, Cole Custer and Michael McDowell. With this pricing structure, I think we're going to see very, very chalky cash game lineups built around Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Cole Custer and Michael McDowell. There's a little flexibility on the last spot, but a few likely highly owned guys there too. So, what we're likely to see is a lot of ties or 1-on-1 driver matchups deciding the outcome of cash games. Not the thing I like to be playing.

So, what to do? I'm going to play lighter overall and focus more on a few tournament lineups. I'll still be using some of the chalky plays but will be trying to combine them with high ceiling, lower owned guys who have the potential to blow up the slate. Here are a few guys I'm focused on:

• Martin Truex -- Truex often has one of the best long run cars in the field and Atlanta tends to feature a number of longer green flag runs with fewer wrecks. Last year, there were five runs of 40+ laps. In 2018, there were runs of 51, 66 and 120 laps. In 2017, we had runs of 63, 78 and 86 laps. All of this plays to Truex's best strength and minimizes his relative weakness on restarts and pit road.
  
• Alex Bowman - Bowman has had one of the fastest cars all year long. He's made a few mistakes lately but he's crushed it almost every time he keeps it clean. The other thing I really like about Bowman here is his success on rough tracks that eat up tires. At Auto Club earlier this year, Bowman dominated with 110 laps led, 66 fastest laps and 109 DK points. Last year at Chicago, Bowman dominated with 88 laps led, 39 fastest laps and 95 DK points. Both of those tracks are very rough and feature a lot of tire wear and drop off, just like Atlanta. I don't think he'll be highly owned, but there's 10x upside there.
  
• Ryan Blaney - Another guy whose had a ton of speed this year. He's arguably had the best car in the field the last three races. I think he'll be very low owned because you have Keselowski (and his two race wins) lurking just $400 above. Without taking anything away from Brad, he's gotten some great breaks in those wins and really done it more with solid execution (primarily on pit road and restarts) then raw speed. I think Blaney has better raw speed and more upside if he can put it all together.
  

Bets

• Hamlin +175 Top 5
  
• E. Jones -115 W. Byron
  
• Bowman +125 Keselowski