kansas cup series

First crucial point.  This is an impound race so tech inspection will be Saturday afternoon.  If a car fails tech once, it's qualifying time is disallowed and it's official starting spot will move to the back of the field.  So you must double check those lineups to make sure you've taken all that into account.  If you want to follow the tech process in near real time, follow Bob Pockrass on Twitter @bobpockrass.  I believe Bob tweeted on Friday that tech is scheduled to begin at about 2:30 Eastern time on Saturday.  So we should know the official starting order within an hour of that.

Subject to everything being turned upside down tomorrow afternoon, here's my current thinking:

• On the top end, I think you roll with Harvick and take the discount off Kyle Busch and Truex.  Harvick will start from pole and had the top long run speed in practice.  It was amazing to see him have almost no fall off from his 10 lap average to his 15 lap and 20 lap average.  Those times were 30.637, 30.649 and 30.683 respectively.  This tells us the 4 car was dialed in and also that tire fall off is minimal.  He's also been very strong at Kansas.  In the last five Kansas races, he's won twice and led over 70 laps three times.
• On the bottom end, I'm locking in David Ragan.  In the last nine races this season, he has finished all of them between 21st-28th.  If he can hit that range again from his 33rd starting spot, he'll give you a solid point day for only $5,500.  On top of that, he's finished in the Top 20 in all of the last four Kansas races.  He's likely to be highly owned and I wouldn't overthink this one.
• With those two in place, I look over the rest of the salaries and see the best value in the $6,100 and under range as well as the $9,100 - $10,200 range.  I don't really like the group in the middle.
• In the $6,100 and under range, my focus is on Matt Tifft ($5,300) and Ryan Preece ($6,100).  Neither of them is likely to pull off a Top 20 run, but if they can just finish the race they're likely to gain a few spots on their starting position and pay off their salary.
• In the $9,100 - $10,200 range, I keep going back to Joey Logano (starting 20th) and Kurt Busch (starting 14th).  Logano has led some laps at every 1.5 mile track this year and has a four race streak of Top 10 finishes.  Kurt has finished in the Top 10 at all the 1.5 mile track races so far this season -- including climbs from the 28th and 30th starting spot.  He had strong speed in final practice, landing 4th in 15 lap average and 5th in 20 lap average -- about .2 seconds per lap behind Harvick.
• Guys like Ryan Newman $7,800, Chris Buescher $7,600 and Matt DiBennedetto $6,800 are certainly in play.  But I think their salaries are creeping too high to justify it.  I don't see any of them doing much better than 20th in a best case scenario.  I think I'd rather go further down the salary chain for the bottom of my roster so I can fill out the other spots in the $9k-$10k range instead of going to the $8K area where I don't see as much value.