The Fantasy Nascar Guy
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I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion.  I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup.  I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time.  I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly.  I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!

kansas cup series

5/10/2019

2 Comments

 
First crucial point.  This is an impound race so tech inspection will be Saturday afternoon.  If a car fails tech once, it's qualifying time is disallowed and it's official starting spot will move to the back of the field.  So you must double check those lineups to make sure you've taken all that into account.  If you want to follow the tech process in near real time, follow Bob Pockrass on Twitter @bobpockrass.  I believe Bob tweeted on Friday that tech is scheduled to begin at about 2:30 Eastern time on Saturday.  So we should know the official starting order within an hour of that.

Subject to everything being turned upside down tomorrow afternoon, here's my current thinking:
  • On the top end, I think you roll with Harvick and take the discount off Kyle Busch and Truex.  Harvick will start from pole and had the top long run speed in practice.  It was amazing to see him have almost no fall off from his 10 lap average to his 15 lap and 20 lap average.  Those times were 30.637, 30.649 and 30.683 respectively.  This tells us the 4 car was dialed in and also that tire fall off is minimal.  He's also been very strong at Kansas.  In the last five Kansas races, he's won twice and led over 70 laps three times.
  • On the bottom end, I'm locking in David Ragan.  In the last nine races this season, he has finished all of them between 21st-28th.  If he can hit that range again from his 33rd starting spot, he'll give you a solid point day for only $5,500.  On top of that, he's finished in the Top 20 in all of the last four Kansas races.  He's likely to be highly owned and I wouldn't overthink this one.
  • With those two in place, I look over the rest of the salaries and see the best value in the $6,100 and under range as well as the $9,100 - $10,200 range.  I don't really like the group in the middle.
  • In the $6,100 and under range, my focus is on Matt Tifft ($5,300) and Ryan Preece ($6,100).  Neither of them is likely to pull off a Top 20 run, but if they can just finish the race they're likely to gain a few spots on their starting position and pay off their salary.
  • In the $9,100 - $10,200 range, I keep going back to Joey Logano (starting 20th) and Kurt Busch (starting 14th).  Logano has led some laps at every 1.5 mile track this year and has a four race streak of Top 10 finishes.  Kurt has finished in the Top 10 at all the 1.5 mile track races so far this season -- including climbs from the 28th and 30th starting spot.  He had strong speed in final practice, landing 4th in 15 lap average and 5th in 20 lap average -- about .2 seconds per lap behind Harvick.
  • Guys like Ryan Newman $7,800, Chris Buescher $7,600 and Matt DiBennedetto $6,800 are certainly in play.  But I think their salaries are creeping too high to justify it.  I don't see any of them doing much better than 20th in a best case scenario.  I think I'd rather go further down the salary chain for the bottom of my roster so I can fill out the other spots in the $9k-$10k range instead of going to the $8K area where I don't see as much value.
2 Comments
KC
5/11/2019 09:26:03 am

When you talk about guys paying off their salaries what value are you looking for? For example a Matt Tift and a Ryan Blaney.

Reply
Steve
5/16/2019 10:45:10 pm

Really good question. To me it depends on the salary range of the driver and what role you want him to fill on your roster. With a guy like Tifft, you're not looking for laps led or fastest laps. It's strictly an issue of finishing spot and position difference for a minimal salary. Let's say Tifft is $5K and is starting 32nd. I'd want a punt play like this to give me about 4X on his salary. If he finishes 28th, he gets me 16 + 4 for position difference. I'll take the 20 points and anything more is a bonus. For a guy like Blaney or a higher salary guy, it depends if I want him as a dominator or as a low risk, solid finish/position difference guy. Sometimes you might want a 10X (or more) return from a projected dominator at Bristol where you have 500 laps. And you might want more of 5X return on a guy starting 20th or so who you expect to move up and finish in the Top 10.

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    My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games.  This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games. 

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