Kansas Cup

SATURDAY UPDATE -- A FEW MORE H2H BETS ADDED

There are a number of obvious, chalky plays this week. But it's also hard to fit many of them together in a viable lineup for cash games because there is really only one good play in the sub-$7k range. So that makes lineup building a challenge and it will be interesting to see which ways people go. Here is my Saturday night thought process.

• Lock in Kyle Larson and Austin Cindric.
  • Larson has been a beast at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. The closest comp is Las Vegas, where Larson won the race, led 103 laps and ran 57 fastest laps. At the last 1.5 mile track (Atlanta), Larson finished 2nd, led 269 laps and ran 104 fastest laps. Starting 32nd, he has a super safe floor, huge position difference potential and even the possibility of leading laps and running fastest laps as the race goes on. He should be very popular.
  • Cindric starts 38th and should probably finish in the 15th-25th range. Even at the low end of that range, he would score 30+ DK points and do fine for his modest $6,700 salary. There really aren't any other guys that stand out in this sub-$7k range either. Cindric is easily the best (and likely most popular) play in that range.
• Pick the next two guys in the sub-$7k range that you feel most comfortable with. Here are the likely options.
  • Ross Chastain (24th) - This should be a fringe Top 20 car and it could help that Ross ran (and did well) in the Truck race on Saturday. That could also make him very popular.
  • Chris Buescher (16th) - It seems crazy to think of using him starting 16th, and maybe it is. But it also shows how hard it is to find a decent play in this price range this week. He's finished 19th, 14th and 7th at the 1.5 mile tracks this year, and he's had some good runs at Kansas, so hopefully he can hold this starting spot or move up a couple of places.
  • Daniel Suarez (21st) - They've shown the speed to finish well inside the Top 20 at times this season, but it's been wildly inconsistent -- which you'd expect from a first year team. 15th, 26th, and 17th at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.
  • Chase Briscoe (19th) - This feels like a reach. He can probably hold this starting spot, but this is a tough one to feel good about.
• Pick the two best top tier guys with your remaining salary. Options include:
  • Denny Hamlin (20th) - He's been the most consistent car all year with Top 5 finishes in seven of the eight (non-restictor plate) races -- including 4th at the last two 1.5 mile tracks in Las Vegas and Atlanta. In the last three Kansas races, he has two wins and has led 50+ laps in all three races.
  • Kyle Busch (9th) - It feels criminal to price Kyle Busch at $8,600. I feel like this might be a breakout race (or, more likely, a trap). He starts with pretty good track position, he crushed the field in the Truck race on Saturday (despite multiple untimely cautions), and he's good at restarts which are critical here.
  • Alex Bowman (25th) - The Hendrick cars have been really, really good at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. We documented Larson above. Bowman doesn't have the laps led, but he does have a 9th at Miami and a 3rd at Atlanta.  He's also been strong at Kansas with finishes of 2nd, 11th, 8th and 3rd in the last four races.
  • Joey Logano (29th) - He's a strong play, but I don't have him further up this list because he hasn't been great at the 1.5 mile tracks this year -- with finishes of 25th, 9th and 15th. He did win the last Kansas race, but in the three before that he finished 15th, 17th and 35th.
  • Kurt Busch (28th) - This should be a Top 10-12 car. I don't see almost $2k of difference between Logano and Kurt.

Bets

• Chastain +110 E. Jones
• Suarez +115 E. Jones
• Byron +110 Logano
  
• Dillon +130 Bell
  
• Dillon +115 Kurt Busch
  
• ​Newman +105 Custer