kansas cup

We've got 400 miles of racing on a Thursday night in Kansas. It's another 1.5 mile track, but the racing will look quite a bit different than what we've seen the last few weeks at Kentucky and Texas. Those tracks are one groove tracks where side to side racing is almost impossible. Kansas, on the other hand, has multiple grooves from down on the white line all the way up to the wall. We can see three and sometimes even four wide racing on restarts. We didn't see any of that at Kentucky or Texas.

However, like Kentucky and Texas, we probably won't see a whole lot of tire wear or fall off. This means some teams could use two tire or even no tire pit stops to get their guys track position just like RCR did with Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick last week at Texas. I don't think the two tire or no tire guys would be able to hold the lead as long as Dillon and Reddick did at the end of the race last week. But it is enough to make it likely we see more drivers lead laps and some drivers finish better then they "deserve" based on their speed and running order throughout the race.

There's a lot to like about almost every one of the most expensive drivers. Kyle Busch could have won at Kansas last Spring if he didn't cut a tire on a late race restart. He had a Top 3 car in Stage 3 of that race. Martin Truex is getting stronger and stronger. Denny Hamlin won at Kansas last Fall. They are all solid plays. In the end, though, here are the top three choices in my mind heading into Thursday: 

• Kevin Harvick -- You've got to like Harvick's chances to score a whole lot of DK points starting from the pole. He was the dominant car starting from the pole at Kansas last Spring, leading 104 laps and running 58 fastest laps. (The Spring race was run at night, so could be a better comparison than the Fall daytime race.) He finished that race 13th, but that was because he got a windshield tear off stuck on the grill late in the race and had to make an unscheduled green flag pit stop which put him a lap down. In the last eight Kansas races, Harvick has scored at least 56 DK points every single time, and is averaging 75 DK points per race over that span. He's also on a good run overall this year. In the last five races this season, he's finished in the Top 5 every race and has two wins. Finally, he's run really well at the night time races at intermediate tracks since the season resumed -- 129 and 62 DK points at Darlington and 55 and 74 DK points at Charlotte. He did have the dud at Homestead, but that was originally supposed to be a day time race and was run at night only because of the rain delay. All signs point to a big night.
• Chase Elliott -- I really like Chase this week. He too ran well at Kansas in the Spring race last year, leading 45 laps and running 28 fastest laps despite starting in the rear. In the last three Kansas races, he's finished 1st, 4th and 2nd. And he's been great at the night time races since the season resumed. At Darlington, he scored 50 DK points in race one and was one his way to a huge night in race two before Kyle Busch wrecked him on a late race restart. At Charlotte, he scored 76 and 80 DK points. And he had 66 DK points at Homestead. His three best DK days since the season resumed were at night time races at 1.5 mile tracks. That said, it is concerning that he hasn't performed well at all the last few weeks. He's had some odd pit stops late in races resulting in really bad finishes. I could absolutely see saving some salary and going with Hamlin or the next guy over Elliott if you don't feel strongly about him.
• Ryan Blaney -- No one has had a better car at the 1.5 mile tracks then Blaney this season. He's led laps at those races and run a bunch of fastest laps, but often failed to come up with the finish he "deserves" based on his overall speed. It's a coin flip for me between Blaney, Elliott and Hamlin.

On the other end, we've got a handful of reasonable cheap plays ($6,500 and under) this week:

• Daniel Suarez -- He's started 37th nine times this year and scored an average of 29 DK points in those races. And he's scored no fewer than 19 points. He's finished 28th or better in four straight races and in five out of the last six. He doesn't have as much upside as some of the other guys back here, but he might actually be a bit safer.
• Ty Dillon -- In a great spot this week starting 36th. He should have no problem finishing with at least +10 position difference.
• Corey LaJoie -- I've got no problem just taking the cheapest option here and hoping for a +5 position difference. But that's about the ceiling. 
• Michael McDowell -- He's fine, although I don't see more than a +3/4 position difference finish here.
• Ryan Preece -- He's running into issue after issue right now. But he did finish 25th and 12th at Kansas last year. He's cheap enough to take a chance on if you can handle the risk of going that direction.

There's also a lot of strong targets in the mid tier ($7k-$9k):

• Tyler Reddick -- Ran at Kansas last Spring and finished 9th. Excellent position difference upside starting 23rd.
• Eric Jones -- 3rd and 7th at Kansas in the two races last year. He's finished in the Top 7 the last four races here. He's just so up and down. He was up last week, so . . . Also, $9k is steep for the risk profile he brings. But there is upside there, too, starting 21st.
• Clint Bowyer -- Way too cheap at $7,500. He ran 5th and 8th at Kansas last year. This is his home track where he desperately wants to do well. Lots of paths to a 5x return starting 19th.
• Rickey Stenhouse -- 11th and 16th last year at Kansas. In the Spring race, he was running in the Top 5 a lot of the night and got shuffled back to 11th during a few late race restarts. He was a legitimate Top 5 car in that race. Obviously, it was a different team, but it's the same driver and crew chief still working together this year. He's at his best (which is still a relative term) at these tracks where we have multiple grooves and passing options.