kansas trucks 1

That was a very odd and ugly Cup Series race on Thursday night. The Trucks will run a short 200 mile race on Friday night. They are running a second 200 mile race on Saturday. Stage lengths are 30-30-74 laps. There is no competition caution.

The past two races at Kansas have not had many cautions or trucks getting knocked out of the race due to wrecks. With a second race on Saturday, I think most drivers will be a bit more conservative on Friday and we could see a pretty green race. So don't count too much on slower trucks starting in the back who rely on other trucks wrecking out to gain a lot of positive position difference.

• I'm starting with Christian Eckes who will start from pole on Friday. He had a really strong truck last week in Texas, leading 52 laps even though Kyle Busch was in the race. I think it's most likely that Eckes gets the lead early and he could keep it for all of Stage 1. It also helps that there is no competition caution to bunch up the field half way through the Stage.
• I also really like the top tier position difference guys at the top of the salary structure -- Ross Chastain, Johnny Sauter and Matt Crafton. Since there are multiple grooves at Kansas, these guys should be able to pass slower trucks.
  • Chastain probably has the most potential to lead laps, but even that's a stretch. Chastain won at Kansas last year, but didn't have the best truck and led only four laps. He benefited from the Top 3 trucks either getting into each other and spinning or running out of fuel late in the race. 
  • Sauter and Crafton, of course, offer more position difference potential. Sauter has three Top 5 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks already this year. He had mechanical issues at Kansas last year, but finished 2nd in 2017 and 5th in 2018. 
  • Crafton had a really fast truck last week. He had to make multiple extra pit stops to deal with a battery issue and still raced up to finish 3rd, with 12 fastest laps. He's now finished 3rd the last two races and he, too, has three Top 5 finishes already at the 1.5 mile tracks this season.
• I love the Zane Smith and Grant Enfinger pairing at $7,900 - $8,000. Both guys have legitimate Top 5 potential and are too cheap.
  
  • Enfinger had a Top 2 truck at Kansas last year when he led 48 laps and ran 20 fastest laps. He finished 7th only because of late race contact with Brett Moffitt which caused them both to spin while they were fighting for 2nd place.
    
  • Smith has been really fast all year and even seemed to impress Kyle Busch last week at Texas. It wouldn't surprise me to see him lead laps at some point on Friday night.
• Derek Kraus has been very good of late and has legitimate potential for a Top 10 finish for under $7k.
• On the safer side in that price range, Robby Lyons starts 34th. Barring an issue, he should easily finish 25th or better. He was in this truck at Pocono and went from 33rd to 20th for 37 DK points.
• I again like Timmy Hill for only $4,800. He ran a new truck for the first time last week at Texas and finished 18th. He tweeted after the race that they learned a lot, would make a few adjustments and bring the same truck to Kansas. All we need is a Top 20 to make value here and I really like the chances of getting it. I have no idea why DK dropped his price after last week.
• I always talk about Austin Hill at the 1.5 mile tracks. The #16 crew really has an elite 1.5 mile program. He ran 4th at Kansas last year but was never really in the hunt for the lead. I wouldn't fault anyone for playing him and it's a strong tournament play. But, for cash games, I think the right play is to spend up for the top position difference guys this week, not Hill. Among other things, this race is so short that it's really going to limit the laps led and fastest laps points out there and Hill would have to get up there pretty quickly to make it work over the position difference guys.
• I also wanted to comment on Brandon Jones. He's just too risky for me in a cash game. If you want to take the chance, he should have a really good truck and could very well lead for a while and win on Friday. I just don't trust him.