kansas trucks

Let's dive right into Saturday's Truck Series race. We had two races at Kansas earlier this year in a doubleheader weekend. Austin Hill won the first race - leading 65 laps and running 19 fastest laps. Matt Crafton won the second race - leading 23 laps and running 16 fastest laps. Both races show a couple of things I've talked about a lot with the Trucks Series: (1) Austin Hill is the best bet at the 1.5 mile tracks and (2) we tend to see a couple of guys leading laps and splitting fastest laps pretty evenly and usually don't see one guy just drive off and dominate. A lot of point (2) has to do with the fact that the stages are so short, and we see a lot of cautions, so get lead changes with frequent pit stops, restarts, etc. With that said, here's who I am focused on for cash game lineups:

• Parker Klingerman (starting 35th) - A Top 15 finish with +20 position difference and 50+ DK points is a very reasonable projection for Klingerman and there's even some upside from there. While expensive, he's a textbook high floor and good ceiling play. I wouldn't overthink this one.
• Austin Hill (8th) - With this, you're getting the best ride at the 1.5 mile tracks. He's likely to lead at some point, run some fastest laps and finish in the Top 5. The only question mark I can find is if you think we'll see a complete circus with caution after caution - certainly possible. Austin is at his best on longer, green flag runs, so a caution filled race doesn't fit his strengths. The Kansas 1 race had only 4 cautions and that's where Austin led 65 laps and was driving away from the field as the race ended with a longer green flag run.
• Zane Smith (9th) - He's been fast all year long, but he doesn't have great numbers at the 1.5 mile tracks. In nine races at those tracks this year, he's got only two Top 5 finishes and both of those came very soon after the season resumed months ago. But, he's led laps and run a chunk of fastest laps in three of the last four 1.5 mile track races. So he has shown some speed, despite the so-so results. He shouldn't go backwards and there's some upside.
• Christian Eckes (14th) - I really like the + position difference upside here because I think this should be a Top 5 truck. Eckes has finished in the Top 8 in six of the last seven 1.5 mile track races -- including three Top 3 finishes. He has a great crew chief and I'm very confident he'll bring a strong truck since this is his third bite at the apple at this track in 2020.
• Sheldon Creed (4th) - If a truck is going to haul off and truly dominate the race, I'd bet it's Creed. He had a great truck at the last 1.5 mile track (Las Vegas), where he led 89 laps and ran 52 fastest laps. While the upside is tremendous, the downside is too. Creed has finishes of 1st, 2nd and 5th at the 1.5 mile tracks this year, but he also has finishes of 16th, 20th and 26th at those tracks. He's very aggressive -- which works great sometimes but ends poorly just as often. For me, he's better left for tournaments because of the downside. However, flashing back to my comments on Austin Hill, if you do see a caution filled circus coming on Saturday, Creed could be your guy because he's usually good and aggressive on restarts.
• David Gravel (25th) - Should be really highly owned. This is a very strong GMS truck and should run in the Top 15. Gravel is inexperienced, so there is risk here, but this equipment is just too good to be priced down at $6,500 from the 25th starting spot.
• Tyler Hill (28th) - Small team that got some equipment upgrades this year. This is a Top 20 truck and it's finished 18th, 19th, 16th and 17th in the last four 1.5 mile track races. Very solid choice that should be highly owned as well.
• Spencer Boyd (31st) - Slow and steady. If the truck doesn't break down, he should be +5 position difference for real cheap.
• Ray Ciccarelli (36th) - Can't really go wrong at this price and starting spot. Ray finished 24th and 26th in the last two 1.5 mile track races and that's a great return. He is shown in the #83 this week, which is usually the weaker of his entries. Tim Viens is in the #49. So, I think a Top 25 is out, but he might sneak into the Top 30.
• Colin Garrett (20th) - He's another real cheap option, although riskier starting 20th. The truck should allow him to finish about where he starts, but he's done only one truck race (21st last year at Las Vegas), so he's very inexperienced.

A few comments on guys (and a gal) I considered but left off my list:

• Crafton, Enfinger, Rhodes - These three ThorSport teammates have been really consistent at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. In the last five races at 1.5 mile tracks, they've combined for 13 (of 15 possible) Top 10 finishes and 8 Top 5 finishes. My issues with them are that they start really far forward and it's hard to predict any + position difference for them and they tend to not lead a lot of laps or run fastest laps despite finishing well.
• Brett Moffitt - He just hasn't shown consistent speed at the 1.5 mile tracks. He has no wins at these tracks this year, has only three Top 5 finishes (but four finishes of 15th or worse), and the most laps he's led in any race at these tracks is 21. He just has not shown a dominator profile at these tracks this year.
• Hailie Deegan - The equipment should be very good because Ford doesn't want to do anything to make her look bad. But this is her first Truck Series race and she's all but said her sole goal is to simply finish the race and complete as many laps as possible. I really don't see any upside beyond the mid-20s and there's a lot of concern how she'll handle a more crowded track compared to her usual ARCA series where there are maybe 8 competitive cars total. There's also hot pit stops which will be new. Just too many risks and question marks. And she's not all that cheap either.