Kansas trucks

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATES IN BOLD -- BETS ADDED AT THE BOTTOM
SATURDAY UPDATE -- A FEW BETTING NOTES ADDED

We've got a 200 mile, 134 lap Trucks Series race on Saturday evening. I'm going to break this article down by categories of drivers that I think are good cash game plays.

The Dominators

• Kyle Busch vs John Hunter Nemechek - There are good arguments for both. Busch dominated the last 1.5 mile track at Atlanta and -- let's be honest -- most of JHN's laps led in that race came because Busch let him by at the end of both stages so JHN could get the playoff bonus point for winning the stage. That was a day time race at a track with extreme tire wear. Kansas is closer to Las Vegas (a night time race with moderate tire wear), where JHN dominated earlier this year. Although, in that race, Kyle had to start in the back and also got a flat tire after making his way through the field.
• I haven't decided what I'm doing with these guys yet. One will be there for sure. But which one? Or both? With Kyle starting 2nd, I do think this is probably closer to Atlanta than Las Vegas. But Kyle really has to crush it to make it pay for this salary. And you've got to make some major tradeoffs with the rest of your lineup. This will be a tough one for me and may go down to the wire on Saturday evening.
• As of Friday night, I'm leaning toward playing both of these guys and just not using the Position Difference Guys. On their very best day, I don't see any of the Position Difference Guys blowing past 5x their salary. They are just too expensive. But both of these guys can do that and at least one of them almost certainly will. And barring a failure or wreck, it's very unlikely either of these guys finish outside the Top 3. 

The Position Difference Guys

• Ross Chastain - Ran 7th in his only other race this year at Atlanta. When they have a good driver (Chastain or Moffitt), the Niece trucks are roughly 8th-12th place trucks. 
• Grant Enfinger - Grant is going to be super popular this week, but people need to understand he's not in his normal ThorSport ride. He is in the #9 which is Codie Rohrbaugh's truck and is not a top level team. Enfinger ran with this same team earlier this year and was really impressive with a 7th place finish. There was a lot of chaos late in the race which allowed him to finish a little better than he ran most of the race, but it was still a really good effort. I wouldn't bank on another Top 10, but something in the 10th-15th range is reasonable. Chastain's the better play if you can afford it, but Grant might be a better bang for the buck. It's close between those two. Grant is $1k cheaper than Chase Briscoe, though, so is easily the more economical play there.
• Chase Briscoe - Chase is in the #04 which is normally driven by Cory Roper. This is not a top level team and he probably won't have Top 10 speed. On his best day, Roper might sneak into the Top 20 at a 1.5 mile track. Give Chase a few more spots and figure he might finish around 15th. I'd rather save $1k and use Enfinger or go up the $500 to Chastain. As of Friday night, Briscoe is off my board. If I go here, it will definitely be for Chastain or Enfinger.

Midrange Guys

• Christian Eckes - Eckes is in the #98 ThorSport truck over Grant Enfinger this week. He finished 9th in this truck at Las Vegas earlier this year and has a good chance at another Top 10 finish this weekend. He had 2nd and 6th place finishes in the #18 Kyle Busch Motorsports truck at Kansas last year.
• Timmy Hill - I often really like this truck when Timmy is driving. Last season, they finished inside the Top 20 at the last six 1.5 mile track races -- including three Top 20 finishes at Kansas (19th, 16th and 14th). Timmy is a solid bet to bring home a Top 20.
• Bayley Currey - He'll be in the #45 Niece truck that has been driven by Brett Moffitt to 11th and 9th place finishes at the two 1.5 mile tracks this season. I wouldn't count on Curry for a Top 10, but a finish around 15th seems doable.  
• Jordan Anderson - He was running inside the Top 15 at Las Vegas earlier this season before getting taken out in a wreck. This truck often seems to have decent speed but is always running into some kind of problem. There is Top 20 upside here for sure, but I have more confidence in the other drivers in this group. The 36th starting spot does provide a real safe floor and significant upside though.
• Ryan Truex - He could finish inside the Top 20, but I think this is too expensive for what he offers. The other four are much better choices here.

Cheap Options

• Tanner Gray - It's crazy for a DGR truck to be sub-$6k. He's run 12th and 19th at the two 1.5 mile track races this year and has Kansas experience. The salary reflects that he's just a really risky choice.
• Chase Purdy - It's even crazier for a GMS truck to be sub-$6k. But in six races this year, Purdy has one finish better than 22nd. That's absurd for someone who has been in a GMS truck all year. 
• Brett Holmes - Starts 32nd and was running near the Top 20 when he got taken out in a wreck earlier this season at Las Vegas. Brett doesn't have a lot of truck experience, but this appears to be a pretty decent truck and he's got a much safer floor than Gray or Purdy -- and more upside than Fogleman or Boyd below.
• Tate Fogleman - Generally a Top 20ish truck at the 1.5 mile tracks as long as they don't run into any issues. But issues aren't all that uncommon for this team either. It's an awful safe floor starting from 35th though.
• Spencer Boyd - The absolute cheapest playable piece here. Not much upside, but Boyd is a veteran driver who won't do anything stupid and should finish at least a few spots above where he starts.

Bets

• Z. Smith -130 C. Briscoe - based on Briscoe not having a top tier ride here
• M. Crafton -120 G. Enfinger - based on Enfinger not having a top tier ride this week
• I'm tempted by S. Friesen Ev G. Enfinger - I haven't played this yet, but I'm close

The lines on all three of the H2H's I posted Friday moved so good closing value on those. Adding one more play on Saturday --

• C. Smith -125 T. Gilliland