kentucky cup

Sunday Morning Update - I'm trending away from Kyle Busch. Really hate the Lap 20 caution and the chance for someone to jump him on pit road. Also no guarantee he leads at all since Logano is one of the best drivers on the restarts.

Update #2 - Truex and Kenseth to the rear for failed inspection.

Let's turn the page on that Trucks race. It was a fluky race and a nightmare for most from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective. About the only thing we can take from it are that it's really, really hard to pass near the front of the field. And there are some strategy options available to get track position. So keep those things in mind heading into Sunday.

Looking back at last year's Kentucky race, we saw pit road decisions and mistakes were a critical factor. With how important track position is, and how little speed fall off there is in the tire, we could see some 2-tire or fuel only stops throughout the race. And being mistake free on pit road will be essential. All of that leads to a little more variance because it's impossible to predict what strategies everyone will use and when someone will make a mistake or have something crazy happen on pit road. Just look back at Indy last week where we had a super speedway style "Big One" on pit road.

What to do with Kyle Busch?

• I think you've got to take the chance and play him. Last year, we had a 47 lap green flag run to start the race and the pole sitter, Daniel Suarez, led all 47 laps. Aric Almirola started 2nd and he was still 2nd at the end of that run. In fact, the Top 5 at the end of that run all started the race in positions 1-5. So it's very likely Kyle leads for a while early. The Lap 20 competition caution could mix things up a bit, but even if it does, Kyle could cycle back to the lead down the road. He's got a top pit crew and he's finished in the Top 5 here in four of the last five races. He'll probably be highly owned, so there's also risk in not using him if he goes off for a big day.

What to do with Christopher Bell?

• He starts 34th and is $11,200 on Draft Kings. Let's assume for a second that he won't lead laps or get more than a handful of fastest laps. In that case, he needs to finish 11th or better to hit 5x return. It is doable even with this package and track making it hard to pass. There are strategy options with pit timing and tires that can help with track position. In last year's race, three guys who started outside the Top 20 finished in the Top 10. They were Erik Jones (21st to 3rd), Ryan Newman (35th to 9th) and Chris Buescher (25th to 10th). It's really a question of whether you want more safety with no upside over a 5x return from Bell or if you want to shoot for a similarly priced potential dominator like Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott or even Ryan Blaney. Bell was very, very good at this track in the Xfinity Series.

What salary savers are the best targets?

• Michael McDowell -- I don't really understand DK pricing here. McDowell has been performing very, very well, and is very highly owned every week because of it, but DK is leaving his price alone. Starting 30th for only $5,700, this seems like an obvious and popular play. A finish of 23rd or better hits the 5x return.
• Cole Custer -- He was great here in the Xfinity Series and seems to be coming on now in the Cup Series. He's now finished 17th or better three weeks in a row. And he's had very good + position difference showings at Pocono and Indianapolis -- both of which are also very hard places to make on track passes. $6,900 is starting to get up there and he'll need to finish inside the Top 20 to hit value.
• Ryan Newman -- I don't know why he's only $6,100. He's hard to pass to begin with and doubly so on a track like this. Last year, they played strategy by staying out extra long on a green flag run and that was key to helping him go from the 35th starting spot to a 9th place finish. On Sunday, he starts 23rd so we're looking for an 18th or better to hit value.
• Ryan Preece -- I could also see Preece as a more conservative pivot off Newman. Preece starts 32nd so is less likely than Newman to kill your lineup if something goes wrong. Last year, Preece started this race 29th and finished 21st and we'd be hoping for something similar this time.
• John Hunter Nemechek -- He's only $5,300 but he starts 22nd, so this is extra risky considering how erratic Nemechek can be at times. To his credit, though, he's been pretty reliable of late with a lot of Top 20 finishes since the season resumed. If you need the extra savings to spend up for a guy you really like, go for it.

What mid tier guys are viable for cash games? I'd say the group from $8,000 to $8,600 are the targets here.

• Matt Kenseth -- The Ganassi cars have been really good here the last few years. Kurt Busch won last year and Kyle Larson was 4th. In 2018, Busch was 6th and Larson was 9th. So he should have a good setup to go off of. It's a stretch to expect a Top 10 from Kenseth, but it is possible. Think 12th or so, which is a couple points shy of a 5x return. He's coming off a season best 2nd place finish at Indianapolis, so maybe he's feeling more comfortable and confident and is ready to step it up a bit.
• Tyler Reddick -- Impressive again last week. Starts 24th, so there's some considerable upside here. The RCR cars of Austin Dillon and Daniel Hemric were good here last year, but Dillon had a mechanical issue and Hemric got a green flag pit road stop and go penalty that killed his race. 
• Eric Jones -- Here we go again. He's finished 6th, 7th and 3rd in his three Cup Series races at Kentucky. So the speed is absolutely there. But the mistakes are absolutely there too. Top 5 upside, with a whole lot of risk. These are his finishes the last four races -- 5th, 38th, 3rd, 33rd. That says it all.
• William Byron -- He had worked his way into the Top 5 with less than 100 laps to go in this race last year and then got busted for jumping a restart. He had a pass thru penalty and finished a lap down in 18th place. We saw last week that Chad Knaus is still pretty good at the whole strategy thing as he got Byron on the front row before a tire failure killed their day. Starting 21st, there's some really good upside here. On the flip side, though, the Hendrick cars have not done well at Kentucky lately. The team's best finishes the last two races here were by Chase Elliott, who was 15th last year and 13th in 2018.

I'm still looking at bets. Will update if anything looks really good to me. I think the market has caught up and is pretty close to spot on lately, so not as much has been jumping out to me lately.