kentucky trucks

See Post-Practice/Post-Qualifying Updates in Bold.

The racing starts early this week with a Thursday night Truck Series race.  All practice and qualifying will be pre-race on Thursday, so please check those results before locking your lineup.  Here are my lineup thoughts and driver targets heading into Thursday:

Low-Priced Locks

• I see two guys pretty badly under priced -- Josh Bilicki and Dylan Lupton
  • Bilicki is in the #34 truck for Reaume Brothers.  This truck has been finishing right around 20th at the 1.5 mile tracks this season.  In the last four such races, this truck has finished 17th, 18th, 16th and 22nd.  Bilicki has been in Reaume Bros. equipment twice at the 1.5 mile tracks this season.  He finished 18th and 19th with 33 DK points both times.  This truck won't be fast, but it pretty reliably runs the full race and will finish ahead of the start and parks and retired trucks.  It is easily the most reliable truck and best value in the sub-$6,500 range.
  • Also good with Bilicki's teammate Mason Massey at $5,300.  Likely to finish 20th-24th place.
    
  • Lupton is in the #15 DGR-Crosley truck.  Anthony Alfredo has run this truck at the last three 1.5 mile tracks and shown very solid speed and reliability.  He's come home 8th, 12th and 9th in those three races with a range of 34-43 DK points.  Lupton ran a third DGR-Crosley truck (#5) two weeks ago at Chicago.  He started 9th, ran in the Top 10-12 all race and finished 10th for 33 DK points.  DGR as a company was very fast at Chicago.  They probably would have had all three trucks finish in the Top 10 if not for a late pit road speeding penalty by Tyler Ankrum in the #17.  Lupton is easily a better bet than Jennifer Jo Cobb and Natalie Decker who are priced right around him.

High End Targets

• Brandon Jones --  Jones will be in the #51 Kyle Busch Motorsports truck again this week.  This truck has finished 1st or 2nd in six of the seven races at 1.5 mile tracks this year.  It finished 5th the only time it was outside the Top 2.  Even if you take out the 4 wins by Kyle himself, Greg Biffle also drove this truck to Victory Lane in Texas.  Jones ran it 2nd in the last race at Chicago and 5th in his first race earlier this year at Kansas.  Even in the three non-Kyle races, this truck has scored 57, 58 and 75 DK points -- easily the best average score in those three races.  At $9,400, it's $1K-$2K cheaper than other potential front runners like Ross Chastain, Brett Moffitt and Grant Enfinger.  Must have in cash games starting 27th.
• Harrison Burton -- Burton is coming off two Top 5 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks.  He ran virtually the entire race inside the Top 5 last time out at Chicago.  Had the best 10 lap average in final practice.
• Austin Hill -- He's been very strong at the 1.5 mile tracks.  He's finished in the Top 8 at the last four 1.5 mile track races and scored at least 41 DK points in all those races.  Real strong cash game play starting 22nd.
• Stewart Friesen -- Is over 55 DK points with a Top 5 finish at four of the 1.5 mile track races this season.  He finished 2nd at Kentucky last year with 37 laps led and 21 fastest laps.  Likely out of cash game mix now.  Primary truck was confiscated by NASCAR.  He will be in a back up and drop to the rear for the start of the race.  He could get back in the picture if his official starting spot is deep in the field.  [Never mind the last update.  Now a near lock starting 32nd.]
• Crafton and Enfinger -- I still like both these guys as real consistent performers.  Crafton in particular has finished no worse than 8th in the last four Kentucky races and also has Top 8 finishes in the last six 1.5 mile track races this year.  Enfinger probably offers more laps led/fastest laps upside with just a tad more risk compared to Crafton.  Like Enfinger to be the lead Dominator, but with only 150 laps, will he get enough to make it worth taking him over one of the big position difference guys?  Real tough/close call.  I think he does get enough to make it worth while, but certainly a more risky play.
• Ross Chastain -- Here's my thought on Ross.  I love what he's done this year and what this team is doing.  But I don't expect them to be out front-running and dominating races.  They need solid Top 5-10 finishes every week to ensure they get into the Top 20 in points to be eligible for the playoffs.  They can't take any chances or do anything aggressive that might lead to another disqualification or poor finish.  So I don't think he pays off a $11,400 salary.

Others

• Here's a few more guys I'd look to use depending on starting spot:
  • Jeb Burton -- running the #44 Neice Motorsports truck which has had speed but been somewhat wreck prone with more inexperienced drivers.  Was 1.3-1.4 seconds per lap off the pace in practice.  Slower then I expected.  Worried, but all upside now starting 28th.
  • Tyler Ankrum -- was heading to a solid Top 10 at Chicago until a late pit road penalty
  • Brett Moffitt -- I'm not convinced yet.  His win at Chicago was impressive, but a few things have me wondering.  First, it had been five races since he last led a lap.  Second, Grant Enfinger and Brandon Jones really looked to have better trucks for the first half of the Chicago race.  Moffitt surprisingly beat them off pit road before the final stage and then Enfinger got caught in a 4-wide that sent him back in the field where he got wrecked by Spencer Davis.  Third, Moffitt's truck really came alive in Chicago after he got hit in the right rear.  Could damage there have actually improved the aero on the truck and given him the speed he was lacking earlier in the race?  I'll be interested in practice times but, as of now, I think he's too over priced at $11,400.  Very strong practice times.  Clearly a Dominator candidate for tonight's race.
  • Adding Sheldon Creed here after he was one of the fastest trucks in both practice sessions.