kentucky trucks

Note: I've not fully completed my analysis for this race, so please check back Saturday afternoon for possible updated thoughts.

Decent night for the Xfinity 2 race. There were a lot of duplicate lineups, so there were some split pots and not many clear double up winners, but it was still a profitable night. This is a tricky Trucks race on Saturday evening. There are a lot of different ways to go with the lineups and I don't think we see a lot of duplication.

There will be 150 laps with stages of 35-35-80. There will probably be a competition caution around Lap 15. I would think most trucks will stay out and then pit at the end of Stage 1. It's possible some pit at the competition caution and try to stretch to the end of Stage 2, but that would be about 55 laps and probably won't work unless you have a bunch of guys do it.

Here are some targets and key questions to answer in building your lineups. As always, I'm focused most on 50/50s or cash games.

What to do with Brett Moffitt starting from the pole?

• This is real tough. On the one hand, we've seen the past two nights how difficult it is to pass on what is really a one groove race track. It will be even harder to pass a good truck because they run much more like the high down force Cup cars and not the lower down force Xfinity cars. On the other hand, Moffitt is not performing this year. He doesn't have a Top 3 finish, has only one Top 5 finish and only three Top 10 finishes in six races. In those six races, he's led a total of two laps and run a total of nine fastest laps. And he got this pole position by random draw, not because of speed on this track.  He did run well here last year, though, with 36 laps led and 20 fastest laps. And there's no Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott or Ross Chastain to contend with for the first time this season. At the end of the day, it's a really risky play. He could dominate early at least, but even that's no certainty with a lot of good trucks right up front with him, including Zane Smith, Christian Eckes and Austin Hill all starting in the Top 5.

What other potential dominators are in play?

• I've talked about Austin Hill on 1.5 mile tracks for over a year now. He's just the best Trucks series regular on those tracks. That said, he doesn't have a great history at Kentucky. He's been a model of consistency in the six races so far this year -- finishing every race in the Top 10 and scoring between 43-58 DK points in every race. He certainly has the potential to take it up a notch with no Busch, Elliott or Chastain in the field.
• Christian Eckes has a good shot to cycle to the lead at some point on Saturday. He's been fast all year and has the best crew chief in the garage. But he's made some mistakes and had inconsistent results. He's too cheap though for the upside he brings to the table.
• Chandler Smith seems like an elite talent in the Trucks. In four races last year, he finished 8th, 4th, 2nd and 3rd. The question mark here is a lack of experience at the 1.5 mile tracks. He's a true rising star, but $10k is a lot to pay for a driver making his first start of the season and his first start on a 1.5 mile track. Starting 10th, he does add the element of +5 position difference upside.

Who are the top position difference targets?

• Parker Kingerman -- Starting 37th, he's got 20+ position difference upside. At $9,400, the salary is really up there, so he does need a Top 18 or so to make value. I don't think you have to use him because of the salary and you might want to go more balanced with several plays from the $6.5k-$8k range and avoid the salary saver/punt plays altogether.
• Matt Crafton -- Starting 14th, he has upside to about 6th-8th place. He's not going to lead laps or run fastest laps. Your just looking for a clean, solid +6-8 position difference finish here.
• Trey Hutchins -- Starting 40th, he's got upside to about 26th-28th place. This is mostly a salary saving play with nothing but upside since he starts dead last. It's a part time team and he ran competently in three races last year -- finishing 24th, 29th and 16th. Think more the 24th and 29th then 16th. Even that is plenty good at $5,400. For example a 28th place finish would be 28 DK points for a 5x return.

What about that $6.5k-$8k range? There's a lot of solid plays there.

• Brennan Poole -- Should be a Top 20 truck. He's had speed this year, but seems to be finding trouble more than normal. Basically, he's been unlucky. Starting 32nd, there's +15 position difference upside.
• Grant Enfinger -- He's too cheap. This might not be a race winning truck, but it should be a 4th-8th place finisher. He's much more reliable and dependable than others in this price range. 
• Ryan Truex -- Another solid driver in solid Niece Motorsports equipment. At Atlanta earlier this year, he started 20th and finished 13th. He starts 18th on Saturday and we can reasonably expect a similar finish.
• Tanner Gray -- 11th, 12th and 12th in the last three races. This should be a Top 15 truck, which easily clears the 5x return goal.
• Jordan Anderson and Austin Wayne Self -- Basically the same profile. Hoping for something around 20th. Reasonably good equipment and drivers with a good amount of experience in the series. Self has finished 14th and 6th in the last two Kentucky races. He won't be getting another Top 10, but it does show he can run really well here.
• Chase Purdy -- He's riding with the GMS team that Chase Elliott ran with earlier this season. He should have the equipment to move up a couple of spots to maybe 15th or so?