kentucky xfinity

We had two Xfinity practice sessions on Thursday.  Qualifying will be Friday afternoon before the evening race, so be sure to check official starting spots. 

One general note, since the repave, it's been very difficult to pass at Kentucky.  In the last two Xfinity races, most drivers are finishing about where they started.  Some specifics:

• In 2018, of the Top 12 finishers, 11 of them also started in the Top 12.  The one newcomer to finish in the Top 12 started 14th, so didn't have very far to go.  Similarly, of the Top 20 finishers, 18 of them also started in the Top 20.  The only outsiders to finish in the Top 20 had started 21st and 24th.  (Note, however, that race winner Christopher Bell started from the rear.  He was able to come through the field to 5th by mid-race and take the lead in the final stage.)
• In the second 2017 race, we saw almost identical numbers.  Of the Top 12 finishers, 11 of them also started in the Top 12.  Once again, the only newcomer to finish in the Top 12 had started just outside the Top 12 in 13th position.  And, this time, of the Top 20 finishers, 19 of them also started in the Top 20.  The lone outsider to finish in the Top 20 had started way back in 22nd!  These are pretty remarkable numbers.

With that background, here's who I'm looking at most heading into Friday:

​Top End 

• How can you not like Christopher Bell and Cole Custer.  They are my top two dominator candidates and you might be able to take them both on Friday night.  In fact, you might need to take them both given the lack of position difference upside we are seeing recently at Kentucky as documented above.
  • Bell was fastest in first practice and second fastest in final practice.  He was also second on the 10 lap average chart -- just behind Custer -- in final practice.  He's been the dominator at two of the five races on 1.5 mile tracks this year -- Atlanta (142 laps led) and Texas (127 laps led).  He won this race last year (over Kyle Busch who led 111 laps) in his only prior Xfinity race at this track.   He also won here in his last season in the Trucks series.  So he's won here the last two times he's raced here.
  • Custer crushed the field at the last 1.5 mile track -- 151 laps led and 85 fastest laps at Chicago.  He had the best 10 lap time in first practice and the best single lap time and 10 lap time in final practice.  Getting two long runs in during practice gives him a great leg up on the field and shows he was very comfortable with what the car was doing.  At Kentucky, he has Top 5 finishes with a decent chunk of laps led and fastest laps in the last two races.
  • I'm not going to count out the third member of the Big Three Tyler Reddick.  But he was just a bit behind Bell and Custer in practice Thursday and he hasn't turned in a real strong performance since his dominating win back on Memorial Day weekend in Charlotte.

Bargains

• Not a true bargain, but Ryan Truex might be a bit under priced at $8,700.  He's in the top notch #8 JR Motorsports car that seems to finish in the Top 10 no matter who is driving.  I think Truex offers the same package as the guys priced just above him -- such as Brandon Jones and Justin Haley.  And he's much stronger than the guys priced just below him -- like Brandon Brown and Garrett Smithley.  (No disrespect to what his underfunded team does, but Smithley at $8,400 is ridiculous and grossly over priced.)
• On the true lower end, I'm most interested in Ronnie Bassett Jr and the JD Motorsports trio of B.J. McLeod, Landon Cassill and Stephen Leicht.
  • Bassett has done five races this year in a secondary DGM car and generally scored about 18-20 DK points each time.  I find him a bit more reliable then the MBM group -- Finchum, Hill, Gase -- who are priced around him.  The MGM guys have been all over the map and subject to reliability issues throughout the season.  I think Finchum offers the best upside of the group, but he's also been very up and down and unreliable.  To his credit, he's been at 20+ DK points the last four races.  But, showing that unreliability, he had terrible finishes and scored 6 and -4 DK points the two races before that.
  • McLeod and Leicht have been among the most reliable salary savers throughout the year.  Leicht has been the best at the 1.5 mile tracks this year -- scoring at least 20 DK points in all five races.  And he's been at 30 or more DK points over the last three 1.5 mile track races.  Cassill appears to be replacing Ross Chastain in the JD cars.  He's gotten off to a bit of a rocky start, but does have a solid history of getting what his car should get in both Xfinity and Cup.

Others

• Shane Lee, Reily Herbst and Ryan Sieg will be others guys I'll strongly consider if the starting spot is right.