kentucky xfinity 1

Race one of four from Kentucky is on the schedule for Thursday night. It's a shorter 200 mile race with stages lengths of 30-30-74 laps. If prior practice holds, we'll probably have a competition caution around lap 15 as well. Based on last year's race, we probably won't see much tire fall off so some 2-tire pit stops might be used to gain track position. Drivers might stay out at the competition caution. Or they could pit then, ride at the back of the pack for the last 10 laps of Stage 1 and then stay out at the end of the stage and cycle to lead when everyone else pits. Fuel window is about 50 laps, so can probably make it from the competition caution to the end of Stage 2.

Here are some key questions and driver targets to help with your cash game lineups.

First, let's talk Dominators. There are three strong candidates and you'll want at least one and maybe two of them.

• Noah Gragson - Starts from the pole and was solid here last year. He's been fine at the 1.5 mile tracks this season, but his best races were the two Homestead races where he ran the wall and was the fastest car for a bulk of the race. No one will be running the wall at Kentucky so that takes away Gragson's best strength. It's also a concern that we'll likely have at least two cautions, pit opportunities and restarts in the first 30 laps. That will obviously bunch the field and prevent anyone from pulling away. He'll also be starting alongside Ross Chastain who is very good at restarts and is going to race Gragson really, really, really hard for the lead at the beginning of the race. All of that is why I prefer others in the $10k+ category. That said, it's difficult to pass and he should lead at least some laps at the beginning of the race. And he's got four Top 5 finishes in the five races at 1.5 mile tracks this season. So he's still a very strong play. I just don't see him completely dominating the race like these other two could.
• Austin Cindric - This team has been prone to some issues this season, but I still think it's the fastest car at the 1.5 mile tracks. In five races at 1.5 mile tracks this season, Cindric has scored 67, 61, 57.5, 63.5 and 70 DK points. In every one of those races, he's led at least 24 laps and run at least 17 fastest laps. He'll start 12th and his floor (barring an issue) is a Top 5 finish. Finishing 5th would put him at 46 DK points even without any laps led or fastest laps. Also, he was video game fast at Pocono two weeks ago. I like him a lot.
• Chase Briscoe - Lots of reasons to like Chase as well. He's been the most consistent driver all season long and he's real good at the 1.5 mile tracks. He was one of only five drivers to finish on the lead lap at Kentucky last season. And he was the dominator earlier this year at Las Vegas and they'll be using the same Goodyear tire at Kentucky as was used at Las Vegas. In that Vegas race, he led 89 laps, ran 58 fastest laps and scored 98 DK points. I believe he'll have the first pit stall by virtue of his win last week at Indianapolis and this is a really strong pit crew already even without that advantage. If he gets the lead, he tends to keep it. He starts 7th so brings position difference upside with him as well.

There are a couple of really good mid-tier position difference upside guys to focus on.

• Riley Herbst -- Starts 23rd and should be a Top 10 car. He ran this race last season and was running 8th until he got a penalty during green flag pit stops in the final stage. He finished 11th. He's been solid at the 1.5 mile tracks this season and this is top tier equipment. Needs a 12th place finish to hit 5x value and that is a very reasonable expectation. There is 8th-10th upside.
• Tommy Joe Martins -- He's on the list again. Same story. Top 20 speed, terrible reliability. He's starting dead last so there's nowhere to go but up. Also, it's a shorter race so the car doesn't have to stay together for as long as normal.
• Timmy Hill -- I always gravitate to this guy because I feel very confident he won't screw up. Sometimes his car breaks down, but he's going to get whatever the car allows him to get. Like Martins, it probably helps that we have a shorter race so there's less time the car needs to stay together. Reasonable expectation is 22nd-24th.
• Jeffrey Earnhardt -- In the most recent 1.5 mile track races, he's finished 21st, 19th and 16th. He's not going to do any better than that, but he also won't do worse unless the car breaks down. This equipment is more reliable than Martins or Hill.
• Joe Graf Jr. -- He's actually been pretty solid at the 1.5 mile tracks and this is a generally reliable team. He has four Top 20 finishes in five races at the 1.5 mile tracks this season -- with a high finish of 13th in the last 1.5 mile track race at Homestead. Starting 31st, he only needs a 22nd place finish to hit 31 DK points and get close to 5x value.
• Myatt Snider -- He's in the #93 car this week, which is not the most reliable stuff. Snider has gotten some good results in that car this season, but the price is too high for me given the risk he comes with in the #93.

Real cheap. You will probably need one of these guys if you take two Dominators.

• Jess Little -- Maybe too risky for cash, but he has three Top 15 finishes in the five 1.5 mile tracks this season and hasn't finished outside the Top 20 in any of those races. If he finishes the same place he starts (14th), that's 30 DK points and a 6x return on his $5,000 salary.
• Ronnie Bassett Jr -- This should be around a 20th place car if there are no issues. Not the best driver, not the best car, but all you need is for him to finish where he starts to do the job.