kentucky xfinity 2

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: ADDING A FEW UPDATED NOTES IN BOLD, ALL CAPS BELOW.

Pretty good Fantasy NASCAR night for Race #1. Austin Cindric showed the same dominant speed he's had all year at these tracks and the team finally put it all together for a race win. Obviously, there's a lot to like with Cindric again on Friday night as he starts 15th with a lower salary that is a full $1k under both Chase Briscoe and Noah Gragson.

I'm going to be pretty brief, and here's how I'm looking at cash game lineups right now:

• We're locking in Brandon Jones and Daniel Hemric. They both should be Top 10 cars and it's a full distance 300 mile race so there's plenty of time to work their way through the field.
  • Hemric in particular is an absolute no brainer at $7,400. That would be a stupid salary if he was starting in the Top 10 without much upside. But now he's got Top 10 potential and +25 position difference points out there for the taking. At $7,400, even a 10th place finish is 58 DK points for an almost 8x return. Don't be stupid in any format. He'll start from the rear for the driver change but we don't care about that since he's already scored from 34th.
  • As for Jones, he's been fast at the 1.5 mile tracks and was fast last year at Kentucky before his engine blew up while he was in the lead. He wrecked out on Thursday night through no fault of his own. I could see some argument for not using him since he is $9,800 and he just seems to have nothing but bad breaks of late. But, this is still a Top 10 car and, like Hemric, even a 10th place finish gets you 60 DK points for a 6+ return on his salary. And there's even more upside there. I can't fade that kind of floor and upside from a Joe Gibbs car in a cash game.
• At the top end of salaries, I love Cindric again. The car was super fast even when he wasn't in the lead. He's got +10 position difference upside as a floor. And he's only $10,200 -- why???.
  • ​Gragson will probably cycle to the lead pretty quickly. He starts 5th and the top four cars are only there because of the inversion. They don't have the speed to hold off Gragson. I really don't see anyone starting in the Top 10 who can challenge Gragson for the lead early. And he'll probably lead the bulk of Stage 1. But he's more expensive at $11,200 and I think I still like Briscoe and Cindric better. We will have a scheduled competition caution at Lap 20 and Stage 1 ends at Lap 45. Everyone should stay out at the competition caution unless the car is way off. Would think Briscoe and Cindric will be lurking in the Top 5 by the time of the competition caution and restart.
  • As for Briscoe, he starts 12th and should finish in the Top 3. A 3rd place finish gives him 50 DK points even without any laps led or fastest laps. I was real surprised he only led 5 laps and ran 5 fastest laps on Thursday.  He's a great play if you can fit the salary.
  • Justin Allgaier and Harrison Burton likely won't lead laps or run many fastest laps but they've both got +10-12 position difference upside. They are both very safe plays. Although check on Allgaier because he had to go to the hospital after his late race wreck on Thursday. It didn't seem all that bad so I'm thinking he'll be alright for Friday, but you never know. Hope he's good.  ALLGAIER HAS BEEN CLEARED MEDICALLY AND IS GOOD TO GO. HE HAD SOME UNSTATED NON-RACING RELATED ISSUE. HE WILL START FROM THE REAR IN A BACKUP CAR, BUT SHOULD STILL BE ON PACE FOR A TOP 10 FINISH.
• Looking at the cheaper plays, there are a few different possibilities:
  • Garrett Smithley from 31st at $5,300 seems like a really strong option. They had multiple mechanical issues on Thursday, but he brought the car home in one piece so he should be good to go with repairs on Friday.
  • Colby Howard from 32nd at $4,900 is also a top play. He got dumped late in the race while running in the Top 20. The car got some pretty heavy front end damage, so check Twitter to make sure he's all good to go on Friday. I would think this 4-car team brought a backup car or two, so he should be OK even if they can't repair Thursday's car.  TEAM STATED ON TWITTER THAT HOWARD WILL BE IN A BACK UP CAR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A GOOD, BUT NOT TOP TIER, TEAM SO YOU NEVER KNOW HOW GOOD THE BACK UP IS. EXPECT LESS PACE AND A CONSERVATIVE RACE. THINK TOP 25 AS A GOAL INSTEAD OF THE TOP 15 HE WAS SHOOTING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
• Middle tier position difference guys are Brandon Brown, Josh Williams and Jeffrey Earnhardt in that order.