las vegas debrief

Photo c/o www.stewarthaasracing.com

It was a mixed bag for us in the Vegas race.

We were right in pushing Harvick, Larson, Truex and Keselowski.  Harvick, of course, dominated and all four finished in the top six.

We were also right in pushing Paul Menard, Aric Almirola and Ryan Newman.  This trio finished 9th, 10th and 11th, respectively.  They had good points days and also scored some solid position difference bonus points.

What killed some of our lineups was Michael McDowell.  We noted that he seemed like the best car in his price range, but that he carried significant risk due to his 15th starting spot.  That left the door open to big time negative points if he had a problem.  Well he did have a problem.  Things looked good for the first 100 laps.  McDowell had led 11 laps due to an alternate pit strategy and was on the lead lap running in the 17th position.  But early in Stage 2, he lost the motor and had to retire the car.  He finished last and scored negative points on DK.

I was able to save some face with a lineup based on drivers we featured here -- Harvick, Keselowski, Larson, Newman, Almirola and Chris Buescher.  I had too much exposure to McDowell and needed to put in a few with an alternate low cost guy.  This line-up returned about 6X and was only about 10-12 points away from being a tournament winning lineup.

If McDowell had not had the mechanical problem, I really think our primary lineups would have returned some good money.  But the risk we identified came to pass.  At least we had enough alternatives to pick some to help salvage something from today.  We'll continue aiming for the top as we go forward to Phoenix next week.

Phoenix -- Looking ahead to Phoenix, the field has to be worried about what Harvick might do there.  He is just on another level right now and in the last nine Phoenix races, he has five wins and has not finished lower than 6th.  Amazing.  Kyle Busch has also been strong there, finishing no worse than 7th in the last five Phoenix races.

We'll be back in a couple of days with our formal Phoenix preview and initial driver targets.

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