las vegas post qualifying update

​Pic from Team Penske website (LINK)

Yesterday I was worried that my initial target list was too Ford heavy.  Today, I'm thinking it was spot on and that Fords are just the way to go right now.  Incredibly, eight Fords will roll off from the first twelve starting positions for the Pennzoil 400 on Sunday.  That includes the top three starting spots belonging to Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch.

So let's go back through my target list and add a few more names to consider.  These are listed in Draft Kings salary order.

• Martin Truex -- $10,500 -- Nothing has changed here.  He starts 4th and is a strong contender for a Top 5 finish with laps led and fastest laps.  Last year, he started 2nd and won while leading 150 of 267 laps.  The only potential hitch is that he had a tire/inner liner issue in qualifying.  It looks like they'll be allowed to have Goodyear fix it before the race without a penalty.  But monitor that to make sure he is not forced to start from the rear of the field.
• Kevin Harvick (ADDED) -- $10,300 -- It's hard to recommend Harvick over Truex.  But Harvick did win this race in 2015.  If he looks strong in practice Saturday, he might emerge as a contrarian pivot from Truex.  Because he starts 2nd, he is in position to score laps led and fastest laps bonuses if his car is dialed in.  Will be low owned compared to Truex.
• Kyle Larson (ADDED) -- $9,800 -- I should have had Larson in the initial list.  He finished 2nd in this race last year from the 5th starting spot.  This year he starts 5th again.  It has been reported that he looked great in a January testing session at Las Vegas.  (See HERE)  We'll be watching his longer run speeds in practice on Saturday to help decide how to use him.  At the very least, he is a contrarian option off Truex and the Fords in this price range.
• Brad Keselowski -- $9,400 -- Starts 8th.  I still feel good about him, but also realize it makes a lot of sense to save $700 and go with Blaney instead.  As a result the 2 car will probably be low owned which opens up a contrarian play opportunity.
• Joey Logano -- $9,300 -- Starts 10th.  I would put him behind Blaney and Keselowski in the pecking order right now.  Possibly a contrarian dart throw who pays off big if he can go to the front and win because he will be so low owned.
• Ryan Blaney -- $8,700 -- Will have extremely high ownership.  Reasonable price and likely strong DK points day.  If you do multiple GPP line-ups, fade Blaney in a few of them.  If he were to have a DNF, it would crush most of the entries.
• Kurt Busch (ADDED) -- $8,500 -- Starts 3rd.  On the one hand, it's concerning that he's finished better than 20th only once in the last five Vegas races.  On the other hand, he had excellent speed today and the Fords in general and SHR in particular look great.  Keep an eye on him in practice and then decide how to handle him.
• Clint Bowyer -- $8,100 -- Starts 11th and didn't look totally comfortable today.  Will be watching closely tomorrow.  It's a good price savings off the top options, but there are some concerns.
• Aric Almirola (ADDED) -- $7,700 -- Said that he was very loose in qualifying and starts 29th.  You have to imagine he can rally for a Top 20 finish to score solid points plus position difference bonus points.
• Jamie McMurray -- $7,400 -- Starts a disappointing 22nd.  He has a pretty decent history at Las Vegas.  Definitely remains a target and, like Almirola, I am guessing he can rally for a top 15 finish with good points and some position difference bonus points.
• Paul Menard -- $6,900 -- Had the fastest speed in round one of qualifying.  Starts 12th.  He is mispriced as we identified already.  Given the price and speed, I expect ownership here at 50%+.  I think you have to hop on that train unless you want a contrarian line up.
• Trevor Bayne -- $6,300 -- Starts 24th.  Honestly, I'm not expecting much here.  Pending practice results, I would say the better option is to save $800 and go with McDowell as your salary saver.
• Kasey Kahne -- $6,200 -- Starts 21st.  I'm not real excited here either.  I guess I prefer Kasey over Bayne, but that's not saying much.  Again, I would lean towards saving the $ and going McDowell.
• Michael McDowell (ADDED) -- $5,500 -- Starts 15th.  McDowell is a good race car driver.  Will have to see how he does in practice on Saturday.  But he has a shot to score a decent finish, although he carries some risk of negative position difference points.  The problem is that everyone else in this price range has very little upside.  So he is probably your best bet for hard core salary relief even though he carries significant risk.

Using these targets, you can put together a few real strong lineups.  Here's one idea I kind of like before we see practice:  Truex, Larson (or Harvick), Blaney, Almirola, Menard, McDowell.

I'll have some final thoughts and line up ideas very late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, so check back before you finalize those lineups.

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