The Fantasy Nascar Guy
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I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion.  I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup.  I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time.  I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly.  I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!

Las Vegas Trucks

9/23/2021

8 Comments

 
Getting back close to normal on the COVID front. Thanks for all the well wishes. Still going to be a bit shorter today.

It seems to me there are a few badly mispriced trucks here --
  • J.H. Nemechek $10,400 -- He beat Kyle Busch here earlier this year. He starts on the pole and has the best pit box. He's won three out of five races at 1.5 mile tracks this season and finished 3rd and 5th in the other two. A win and he's in the championship race. I think we'll see his best effort here and $10.4k is too cheap for the safety of a Top 5 finish and the upside of leading 100 laps and crushing the field.
  • Christian Eckes $7,300 -- WTF? This is the the #98 ThorSport truck. The worst finish for this truck at the 1.5 mile tracks this season is 11th. Eckes has been in it three times at 1.5 mile tracks and finished 9th (at Las Vegas!), 4th and 11th. He starts 15th, so has pretty easy +4/5 position difference. Just crazy that he's cheaper then guys like Derek Kraus and Drew Dollar who consistently wreck themselves and others.
  • Tanner Gray $7,700 -- I get that Gray can be erratic and scary to have in cash games. But he starts 29th in a truck that can easily get into the Top 10-12 on speed. His worst finish at the 1.5 mile tracks this season is 22nd and he has two Top 12 finishes -- including a 12th earlier this season at Las Vegas. And he finished 8th and 3rd with the same team last year at Las Vegas. Starting 29th, there is +20 position difference upside here with reliable equipment. Again, this seems crazy to me. If there were ever going to be a time to buy in on Gray in cash games, this is it.
  • Sheldon Creed $10,900 -- He's actually pretty fairly priced considering how sketchy he's been at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. But he's brought his "A Game" for the playoffs just like last year. I do think he'll run well and he gives you some + position difference upside as well from the 9th starting spot. If JHN doesn't win on Friday, Creed is the next most likely guy to advance on to the championship race.

Let's talk about a few other guys who seem tempting --
  • Grant Enfinger $10,000 -- He's in the #9, which is maybe a 12th-15th place truck at best. He was able to squeeze out a surprising 7th here earlier this year in this truck, but also has 14th and 17th place finishes at 1.5 mile tracks. He might inch across the 5x target return here, but I just don't see the value or upside. Brett Moffitt has a very similar profile for almost $1k less.
  • Dylan Lupton $8,300 -- He starts 36th and is running for Reaume Brothers. But this is part of newly formed partnership that is supposed to up the game for this organization. It's their first joint effort. All that is awfully scary. Can they run in the Top 20? Maybe so. But is that really enough? And without practice, we really have no idea what kind of speed or reliability they're going to have. It's not like the Reaume team has good notes on how to set up a fast truck here. That's just not their business model. So we'd just be guessing.

Cheap guys I'd be willing to consider:
  • Danny Bohn - could get you +6-8 position difference if all goes well
  • Bret Holmes - if he can just finish, he'll give a good return
  • Howie Disavino - so cheap, just don't wreck
8 Comments
Casey
9/23/2021 04:50:08 pm

Glad your back Steve. Always refresh your page hoping to see that update.

Reply
Max
9/24/2021 08:49:26 am

Struggling between

Hill/Moffitt

Or

Creed/Dollar

What do you think?

Don’t love the truck Moffitts in or Hill being eliminated in the playoffs. I like Hill more at these mile in a half’s than creed typically. I also don’t trust Dollar that much but it’s hard to believe that 51 truck at a mile in a half isn’t in the top 10ish unless he wrecks it

Reply
Steve
9/24/2021 01:35:47 pm

Of those two, I'd take the Creed side. The way he's been going, there's a chance he gets up front and dominates and puts up a huge score. I generally love Hill too, but the elimination changes things.

Reply
Dustin
9/24/2021 01:14:54 pm

Creed, Eckes, Grey, Holmes, Nemecheck, and Hocevar I’m cash?

Reply
Steve
9/24/2021 01:37:15 pm

I wouldn't use Hocevar. He could finish Top 10, but he's not going to move up, so it's all downside and would worry me.

Reply
Dustin
9/24/2021 01:56:29 pm

How about Nemecheck, Bohn, Creed, Davis, Eckes, and Gray?

Steve
9/24/2021 02:25:16 pm

Nemecheck, Bohn, Creed, Davis, Eckes, and Gray works. That's a lineup I'm considering as well. Going back and forth.

Reply
Rob
9/24/2021 02:33:02 pm

Steve just wanted to tell you how thrilled I was this morning to see that you had a write up for trucks tonight! Glad you are back and hope all is well with the family. Great write up! Thank you

Reply



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    My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games.  This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games. 

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