Las Vegas

Looking forward to a race weekend with practice and a traditional 1.5 mile track that has offered some really good racing in recent years. Will have Xfinity notes on Friday night and Cup notes on Saturday night.

Cup DFS Notes

• If practice times mean anything, this race is going to be a 2-man show between Kyle Larson and William Byron. If anyone is going to crash that party, it's Tyler Reddick. Those three were easily the Top 3 in practice and it wasn't particularly close.
• I'm guessing a lot of mid-range ownership goes to Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski and Alex Bowman. They all seem like reasonable cash game plays to me. I'm playing Bubba Wallace in at least one tournament lineup to get off the chalk in this range. He was just behind Reddick on the practice chart and he's had a few good runs at fast, low wear tracks (like Kansas and Las Vegas). And just imagine the story if he and Rajah Caruth were to win in the same weekend.
• Preece and Gragson should get most of the attention in the bottom range. I could see going down to Haley if you need to money to pay for your dominators.
• Martin Truex -125 to finish T10. Finished T10 at Las Vegas 9 out of the last 10 races. Starts 7th and showed enough practice speed to stay there.

Xfinity DFS Notes

• Don't love the slate for cash games because of the massive chalk starting in the rear. Let's go through them--
  • Justin Allgaier - Abandoned the Q run after getting a flat tire. He starts 36th and will be mega chalk for cash games. Got to play him. He was also very fast in practice with the best 10-lap, 15-lap and 20-lap averages.
  • Anthony Alfredo - Also had a flat tire. His was during practice and he hit the wall hard. He'll be going to a back up car, which is the team's Phoenix car according to his Twitter account. That probably caps his upside some, but he's still a strong cash game play at the salary and 37th starting spot. I would look to pivot off him in larger tournaments.
  • Joey Gase - Had his Q time disallowed because they forgot (?) to tape off a duct on their Q run. I don't think he has a ton of upside but he starts dead last and should be able to overtake a few cars and finish ahead of those who wreck out as well. Cheap enough to work as a punt play.
  • Cole Custer - Best short run speed on Friday and was 2nd to Allgaier in the long run averages as well. He and his teammate Riley Herbst combined to lead 165 of 200 laps here last Fall and they both look strong once again. Like Custer starting from the pole here which, I believe, gives him the first pit stall as well since it was not same day qualifying. [Correction - The 2 has the #1 pit stall. Custer will have it next race.]
  • JHN - I could also see going the JHN route over Custer to be more conservative. Figure JHN will have the car to finish in the Top 5 and it wouldn't surprise anyone if he leads at some point. Xfinity races can get crazy at times, so I can't fault anyone for going this route. This decision might come down to the wire for me.
• Some more risky plays more suited for tournaments--
  • Jeb Burton - Pretty cheap and he was really solid at the 1.5 mile tracks last year
  • Van Gisbergen - Too risky for cash games with his lack of experience. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if he starts off slow and is then able to move up as the race goes on and he gets more comfortable.
  • Riley Herbst - Won and dominated the last race here. Not a crazy cash game play either.
  • AJ Allmendinger - Has also won here out of nowhere. And might be the odd man out ownership wise with more popular options (Chandler Smith, Austin Hill and Aric Almirola) all around him.

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