martinsville cup

Can't wait to see what happens on Sunday at Martinsville.  From a pure narrative standpoint, you've got to imagine Logano and Truex fighting for this win again.  Can Truex finally score his first short track victory?  Or will the recent Kyle Busch dominance continue?  Here's some thoughts for your winning lineups:

• Pay attention Sunday pre-race.  The current starting grid is preliminary because inspection won't take place until Sunday morning.  If a car fails inspection, it's qualifying time will be disallowed and it should officially start from the back of the field.  This could move some good cars to the back giving them massive position differential upside.
• On the flip side, with 500 laps, we've got a ton of points for fastest laps (250 points) and laps led (125 points) available.  We'll need to grab a bunch of these to have a winning lineup.
• It's very jumbled at the top, but several cars stood out in final practice in 10, 20 and 30 lap average. 
  • Martin Truex led all three categories by a pretty decent margin.  I expect him to be competing for the lead and win all day long.  He's finished in the Top 5 in the last 3 Martinsville races but has not led a meaningful number of laps here since the Fall 2016 race.
  • Clint Bowyer was in the top 4 on all three charts.  Last Spring he led 215 laps here on the way to a race victory.  He starts 11th and is under priced at $8,400.
  • Kyle Busch was 3rd in 10 lap and 20 lap average.  I don't believe he ran 30 consecutive laps so he doesn't show up on that chart.   He's finished in the Top 5 here in 7 consecutive races and has led 100 or more laps in 4 of the last 6 races here.  Starting 14th, he even offers position difference upside.  There is probably no pick with a more solid floor or higher ceiling, but his $13,000 salary makes building the rest of your lineup more difficult.
  • Kevin Harvick was also in the Top 5 in all three categories in final practice.  While he's been solid of late at Martinsville, he hasn't led a lap here since Spring 2016.
• In the last four races here, the pole sitter has led 100, 4, 59 and 23 laps.  In each of those races, a car starting between 9th - 14th has led the most laps.  Last Fall, Logano started 10th and led the most laps with 309.  Last Spring, Bowyer started 9th and led the most laps with 215.  In Fall 2017, Kyle Busch started 14th and led the most laps with 184.  In Spring 2017, Busch started 10th and again led the most laps with 274.  In Sunday's race, Martin Truex (9th), Clint Bowyer (11th) and Kyle Busch (14th) are all slated to start in the 9th-14th range, so it's very possible this trend continues.
• Joey Logano starts from pole and should be strong.  He was 8th or 9th on the 10, 20 and 30 lap average charts in final practice.  As noted above, the pole sitter hasn't seen a whole lot of success here of late.  I'd definitely include him in some tournament lineups but will probably fade in cash games.
• I don't really like any of the salary savers this week.  But to get those potential Dominators, we'll be forced to choose several.  David Ragan, Ross Chastain, Matt Tifft and Corey LaJoie are the guys I'm looking at right now.