martinsville cup

500 laps of Cup Series racing hopefully on Saturday night coming up. Rain is forecast, so we could have some curveballs thrown our way with this one.

• Martin Truex - I think the lineup has to start with him. He was really good here in both races last year and was the only driver who led 100+ laps in both races. No one else even came close to that. Logano nailed the Spring race but didn't lead in the Fall. Elliott nailed the Fall race but didn't lead in the Spring. Truex was strong throughout. And he won and ran really well at Phoenix a few weeks ago -- which is our only remotely comparable track from this year. So I'm locking him in.
• Joey Logano - With 500 laps, we really need to shoot for two or even three bulk lap leaders. This is a really good track for Joey and he starts from the pole, so there's a good chance he leads a chunk of laps early on. There is a competition caution at Lap 60 though, so we know the field will get reset pretty early in this one. He led 234 laps and ran 61 fastest laps in the Spring night race here last year. He was also very good earlier this season at Phoenix, finishing 2nd while leading 143 laps and running 38 fastest laps. He and Truex were the best at the end of that Phoenix race and had a good battle for the lead.
• Chase Elliott - What Logano did here in the Spring last year, Elliott did in the Fall. In that race, he led 236 laps and ran 110 fastest laps. And he was able to do that despite having some long pit stops and losing ground on pit road. Having crushed the last race, we really have to give him strong consideration here.
• Kurt Busch / Aric Almirola / Bubba Wallace - These are the guys in the mid-range that offer some pretty nice position difference upside.
  • Kurt finished 9th and 5th here last year and he's finished inside the Top 12 the last six races here. He's probably a little too expensive since he's unlikely to lead laps or run many fastest laps, but he should be good for another Top 12 run.
  • Over the years, Almirola has pretty consistently been a Top 15 guy here, including a 7th place finish last Fall. But he also finished 33rd and 37th in the two prior Martinsville races, so it's not all great news. (I'm writing off last Spring when he finished 33rd though because it was one of the first post-COVID races and he had a battery issue that ruined his night.) A few weeks ago at Phoenix, he started 32nd and finished 11th, and we'd be looking for something similar here. The $8,100 price tag is affordable with the position difference upside that's on the table.
  • Bubba has been very solid here even in weaker equipment for RPM. He finished 21st last Fall, but had finishes of 11th, 13th and 17th in the three races before that. He's now in stronger equipment so it's very reasonable to think a Top 15 finish is likely. That would work very well with him starting 25th for only $7,300.
  • I do think Matt DiBenedetto could also be a strong option for a Top 10 finish here, but I really can't recommend him for cash games right now. He just seems to have too many issues for me to feel comfortable with him. I'd rather save a few hundred bucks and go with Bubba.
  • I feel similar with Cole Custer. He's awfully cheap though, so I could see using him. I just don't really like how the Stewart-Haas cars are running right now and Custer doesn't have the best of track records here at Martinsville - especially since the Xfinity Series didn't run here while Custer was in that Series.
• Ross Chastain / Anthony Alfredo / Corey LaJoie - These are your cheapest options.
  • Ross is still too aggressive and will probably end up getting spun out by someone getting back at him. But he's cheap and starts 27th, so there's some reason to take the chance on him since this should really be a Top 20 car. He ran well at Martinsville in the Xfinity race last year. And he finished 19th earlier this year at Phoenix.
  • Alfredo and LaJoie are a mess and have been terrible this year. But they are starting really far back here and are cheap. They should be able to finish in the 25th-28th range and that's all we really need at their salary to make it work. It's less about them being good plays then it is about having to use their salaries to get the lap leaders we need to have in our lineup for a 500 lap short track race.