martinsville first look

​Here's our first look at this weekend's Martinsville race.  First some general notes about the race weekend:

• This is one of the rare two day weekends with events on Saturday and Sunday only.  There are two practices and qualifying on Saturday.  The race is Sunday at 2pm Eastern.
• There is a lot of uncertainty about how much (if any) on track action will actually take place.  As of this posting, Saturday's forecast is for temperatures in the low 40s with a rain/snow mix likely in the afternoon.  There is a 70% chance of rain throughout Saturday night and Sunday.  Monday is expected to be dry.
• For NASCAR specific weather updates, follow @RaceWeather and @NASCAR_WXMAN on Twitter

Whenever we get to racing, here's a preliminary driver target list.  This week's DraftKing's salary in parenthesis:

• Kyle Busch ($11,000) -- He has dominated at Martinsville recently.  In the last four races, he has two wins and he's finished in the Top 5 in all four races.  He has led over 40% of the total combined laps in those four races.
• Brad Keselowski ($10,100) -- He is the only one who has been anywhere near Kyle the last four races.  He has one win and has also finished in the Top 5 all four races.  He has led over 11% of the total combined laps in those races.
• Chase Elliott ($9,900) -- Last year in October, Chase led 123 laps at Martinsville and had the race won until Denny Hamlin took him out in a very controversial "pass" for the lead.  Chase had to pit to repair damage and finished 23rd.  In Spring last year, Chase started 2nd and finished 3rd.  He led 20 laps in that race.  It would be fitting to see Chase score his first Cup series victory here this weekend.
• Joey Logano ($9,500) -- He has won the pole 4 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.  But, he has no wins, only one Top 5 and three Top 10 finishes in those six races.  He obviously has some speed here (and his teammate has done very well) but he hasn't been able to translate that into race success yet.
• Jimmie Johnson ($9,100) -- Jimmie has an awesome history at this track with nine career Cup series victories.  His last was in October 2016.  However, he didn't even lead 100 laps in that race and he hasn't led a large number of laps in any recent races here.  That said, he showed some speed last week for the first time this season and he does have that history here.  So he's worth watching this weekend.
• Ryan Newman ($7,900) -- Possibly a good option at a moderate cost.  Newman has been solid at Martinsville.  He's finished in the Top 10 three of the last five races and has not finished lower than 16th in those five races.  He's unlikely to led laps or get many fastest laps, but he is a good bet for a 6th-12th place finish and solid points.
• Austin Dillon ($7,700) -- Another possible moderate cost option.  He's finished in the Top 20 the last four Martinsville races.  In the last two Spring races, though, he's finished 4th and 5th.  He's also had some very impressive position difference showings in the last four races.  He is +25, +15, +15 and +12 positions in the last four Martinsville races.  At a track where it's difficult to pass, that is very impressive.
• AJ Allmendinger ($6,400) -- We had AJ as a lower cost option last week and he finished 22nd with a +10 position difference bonus.  We're going back to him at Martinsville where he has done really well in most races.  Last October, he did have an early accident and finished 40th.  But, in the three prior Martinsville races, he had three consecutive Top 10 finishes.  His road course skills and braking ability are real assets at a track like Martinsville where the corner speeds drop so low.  AJ has raced at Martinsville eight times since joining JTG Daugherty Racing in the #47.  He has two terrible finishes of 40th or worse, but in the other six races, he has finished no worse than 11th and has a high of 2nd in October 2016.  I'd like to see him start toward the back of the field, which would make him a low risk, high upside choice at a great salary.
• Landon Cassill ($4,500) -- Cassill is replacing Jeffrey Earnhardt in the #00 car.  He is really a solid driver and, at this cost, could be a viable salary saving play as long as he qualifies at the back.  He and Allmendinger could open up something of a "stars and scrubs" type option that would allow you to roster our top three drivers Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott with a solid points grinder like Ryan Newman.

We'll continue to update things as the weekend nears and throughout the weekend as long as we have on track action.  In the meantime, please follow us on Twitter and tweet any questions you have @illinisjc.    

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