martinsville xfinity

FRIDAY UPDATES IN BOLD BELOW

We're back for Xfinity Series short track racing on a Friday night. 250 laps is a lot for an Xfinity Series race, so we really need to be aware of the laps led and fastest laps points for this one. Also, last year was the first year in a long time that the Xfinity Series has raced at Martinsville, so we don't have a whole lot of data at this track to work from. Let's get to it--

• I feel really good about Harrison Burton and Justin Allgaier leading a chunk of laps at some point in this race. They both had excellent cars here last year and finished the race 1st and 2nd.
  • Burton led 81 laps and ran 53 fastest laps last year, so his numbers clearly show how strong he was. 
  • Allgaier, on the other hand, didn't lead any laps and had only 11 fastest laps last year. But, from the TV broadcast, it was clear they made a bad adjustment early in the race and then got it back to where he wanted it late in the race when the sun went down. By that time, he was right where he needed to be to advance to the Championship Race the following week (Martinsville was the 2nd to the last race of the season last year), so he didn't need to or want to push it. But his car very well could have been the best out there at the end of the race in conditions that will be most similar to the night race on Friday. Allgaier was also awesome at Richmond last year, which also features very flat, slow corners. And, at Phoenix earlier this season, he led 32 laps and ran 34 fastest laps. For their prices, using these two is a great way to get double exposure to likely dominators.
• A.J. Allmendinger is the other guy I'd say is most likely to lead laps. He charged from the back of the field in this race last year and used an alternative pit strategy to get the lead for 68 laps. He cut a tire racing Burton for the lead on a late restart, so finished a few laps down in 26th place. To be clear, I really, really like AJ's chances to lead laps and possibly win this race. But I have two concerns with him that I don't have for Burton or Allgaier -- (1) his price, which is almost $3k more than Burton and almost $2k more than Allgaier and (2) pit stops. On the pit stops, I don't think his crew is quite as quick as Burton or Allgaier, although I'm still looking for actual data to back that up. Regardless, AJ also has Brandon Jones pitting right in front of him, so he won't have an easy straight out of his box like Burton (open box in front) or Allgaier (1st pit box) will have. So, even if AJ can get the lead on track, there's a pretty good chance he loses it on pit road -- which weakens his dominator potential. Conversely, I could easily see Burton or Allgaier coming onto pit road 2nd or 3rd and coming out 1st. 
• I like Ty Gibbs as well. We know he'll have a great car and he's got some position difference upside starting from 16th. I think he, Brandon Jones and Brett Moffitt are all solid cash game plays, with Gibbs having the most upside, but also the highest price tag. I do think Jones and Moffitt should be +15 position difference guys if they can avoid any issues.
• A wildcard in all this is Austin Cindric. He led early here last year because he started from the pole, but was never really a factor as the race went along. But we don't know how much of that was because he basically just needed to finish the race in one piece to advance onto the Championship Race last year. And, we saw him go out and dominate at Phoenix earlier this year, which is the only track these guys have been on this year that is even remotely comparable to Martinsville. I don't see him as a cash game play with his price and the other options above, but it wouldn't shock me to see him crush this race as well.
• If Josh Berry can't finish well here, he's never going to finish well anywhere. This is exactly the kind of track where his late model experience should elevate him. Starting 29th, he's probably a lock play for cash games as he should finish in the Top 10 if he doesn't wreck himself out again.
• On the salary saver side, there are actually a number of decent options. David Starr, Stefan Parsons and possibly even Matt Mills over some really cheap plays with nowhere to go but up. I'd rank them in that order if price is no factor. However, I also think Timmy Hill is in play as well. While it's risky because he starts 20th, he did finish 17th here last year and he finished 14th earlier this year at Phoenix. At short tracks like this, there's almost no chance of him doing a start and park, so that isn't an issue here either. I do expect this to be a pretty crazy race, but if he doesn't get taken out and the car doesn't break, I don't think he goes backwards from that 20th starting spot. I like him over Matt Mills if you're going down in the sub-$5k range.
  • THINKING MORE ABOUT THE PUNTS, I'M REMOVING MATT MILLS AND DAVID STARR. FOR MILLS, LITTLE UPSIDE AND TOO UNRELIABLE. FOR STARR, HE'S FINE BUT THERE'S NO REASON TO SPEND MORE TO GET TO HIM SINCE THE CHEAPER OPTIONS ARE JUST AS GOOD (IF NOT BETTER).
    
  • ADDING JADE BUFORD AS A BETTER CHOICE THEN MILLS OR STARR BECAUSE HE CAN ACTUALLY FINISH AROUND 20TH. SO THE DECENT PUNTS ARE PARSONS, BUFORD AND TIMMY HILL.
• J.J. Yeley is another good option starting 33rd, although his salary of $7,300 is higher than we'd like it to be. But he's a good, veteran driver who ran well here at Martinsville last year (finished 14th) despite getting spun out by Justin Haley. Yeley also finished 13th earlier this season in this same car at Phoenix. He should be good for +15 position difference if he has no issues and he feels much safer than some of the other options starting back there -- better driver in a better car.