martinsville

Wednesday Afternoon Update
Placing two bets:

• Logano +1200 to win
  
• Harvick +185 Top 5

Tuesday Night Update -- Some additional notes in bold below

How awesome is it to have a Wednesday race under the lights at Martinsville? We're getting spoiled with all this racing action compressed into a short period of time. Now let's hope the rain gives us a break and we get in a good and complete race.

There are a few basic points to remember for this race:

• We have 500 laps, so roughly 125 points for laps led and 250 points for fastest laps are out there. Position difference is still an important consideration, but we absolutely need several guys who are going to lead laps and run fastest laps.
• They will not be using the same race package as last year, which is a really good thing. It was nearly impossible to pass the leader on track last year at Martinsville, so we had two races completely dominated by a single driver. In Spring, Brad Keselowski led 446 of 500 laps and scored 199 DK points -- nearly 100 points more than the next best driver (Chase Elliot with 100.25 points). In Fall, Martin Truex led 464 laps and scored 235 DK points -- over 150 points more than the next best driver (William Byron with 75.5 points). (I'm not sure how important it is, but both BK and Truex started the races they dominated in 3rd position.) I don't expect we'll see anything like that this year with the new race package at short tracks like Martinsville reverting to something close to what we saw in 2018 and prior. The take away here is that Keselowski and Truex both remain very good plays, but don't go completely crazy with them based on their domination in 2019 because the race is very likely to play out much differently this time around.
  • In the last few Martinsville races using a low down force package, we tended to see three or four dominators. A couple of them would score 100+ points and one or two more would be at about 80+ points and well ahead of the rest of the drivers. We'll want to build our rosters with that in mind knowing we are probably going to need to hit on at least two dominators to get into the money.
  • The pole position has not been a great spot for dominators lately. In the last eight races here, the pole sitter has never been the top dominator and he's only been in the dominator group in two of those eight races. However, those races had qualifying and practice, so we can't say it's a perfect comparison to this race where Ryan Blaney's team knew he would be on pole before the car even left the race shop. It's a factor to consider, but not a determining one in deciding whether to use him.
  • Finally, in the last eight races here, twenty drivers have finished in the dominator group in a race. Of those twenty drivers, fourteen of them started inside the Top 10. (Half of those started in positions 1-5 and the other half started in positions 6-10.) Another five dominators started from 10th-20th and only one started outside the Top 20. So, we're looking primarily inside the Top 10.

Here are the guys I see as most likely to score a bunch of dominator points:

• ​Kyle Busch - He's simply awesome at this race track. In the last nine races here, Kyle has two wins and eight Top 5 finishes. Eight of nine races finishing in the Top 5! That's crazy. He was a little bit off last year without any laps led or many fastest laps. But, going back to 2018 and before in the comparable race package to what they are using this year, Kyle was a beast. From 2016-18, he finished 1st or 2nd in four of the six races. And he averaged 118 DK points in those races -- with scores of 59.25, 86, 86.5, 137, 164 and 180.5. His salary ($10,700) is about as low as we've seen for him and he will be really hard to leave out of the cash lineup this week. Starting 7th, he'll begin in the preferred lower line and has as good a chance as anyone to work his way up front really quick. Expect high ownership.
• Martin Truex - He starts 5th right in front of Kyle. In the last ten races here, Martin has eight finishes inside the Top 8 -- including his dominating win last Fall and Top 5 finishes in the last three races using the low down force package like the one being used this week. Outside of his dominance last Fall, Martin doesn't have the same level of dominator performances as Kyle. But, he's been awfully strong and is reasonably priced at $10,300.
• Ryan Blaney - He starts from the pole and will almost certainly lead early on because the lower line is a HUGE advantage on the start and restarts. He's finished in the Top 5 in three of the last four races here. In Spring 2018, using a similar low down force package, Blaney finished 3rd, led 145 laps, ran 30 fastest laps and scored 94.25 DK points. So we know he can score those dominator points that we need. At $8,400, I think he's way too cheap for the potential he offers. Expect high ownership.
• Brad Keselowski - As noted above, Brad dominated this race last Spring. He was also very good in the low down force package similar to what is being used this weekend. From 2016-18, he finished in the Top 10 in all six races -- with a win and five Top 5 finishes. During that span, he scored 42.25, 66.75, 75, 82.5, 123 and 124.5 DK points -- for an average of 85 DK points. Brad also had a good car at the two short tracks we've been at so far in 2020. He probably had the best car in Phoenix -- leading 82 laps, running 30 fastest laps and scoring 72 DK points. He had a Top 5 car in Bristol and was able to steal a win when Chase Elliott wrecked Joey Logano. In that race, he led 115 laps, ran 32 fastest laps and scored 91 DK points. He's a real solid value at $9,500.
• Joey Logano - Joey dominated the last race here using a comparable low down force package in 2018. He started 10th, won the race, led 309 laps and ran 51 fastest laps for a total of 157.75 DK points. In the low down force package this year, Joey didn't have the best car, but caught some breaks to win at Phoenix. He was also running up front at Bristol before contact from Chase Elliott ended his race. He's very reasonable priced at $9,900.
• Kevin Harvick - Harvick has not led a single lap at Martinsville in the last seven races here. So what makes me include him in this list? First, he's had a really good car all year long and his team is doing a really good job unloading a fast car and taking advantage of this no practice scenario. Second, his pit crew has been awesome this year and he has the preferred number one pit stall for this race because he won on Sunday. Even with the low down force package, it won't be easy to pass for the lead on the track, so having an advantage on pit road will help you gain spots there. It will help even more at a track like Martinsville where we do tend to see a lot of cautions and, therefore, a lot of pit stops. If Kevin can get out front, he'll probably stay there for a while just like he's done all season long.
• Denny Hamlin - I like Denny Hamlin as much as any of these other guys, but he's priced up at $11,900, so he's $2k+ more expensive then guys like Keselowski and Logano. He could absolutely lead a bunch of laps and he has position difference upside starting from 12th. But the price makes it really hard to use him and roster enough other quality potential dominators. 

There are plenty of salary saver options to pair with potential dominators.

• Ty Dillon - I like Ty's experience at the track. In the last four races here, he's finished 24th, 13th, 15th and 22nd. He was 15th at Phoenix earlier this year, which is the closest comp we have this year in the low down force package. He has struggled of late though, finishing outside the Top 25 in the last four races overall this year. He starts 30th and I can't imagine him going backwards from there unless he has some serious issues.
• Cole Custer - Will be his first race at Martinsville since back in the Trucks because Xfinity does not race here. He did fine in the Trucks and should be fine here, but it makes me a little nervous with no practice.
• Ryan Preece - Finished 16th and 19th at Martinsville last year. It's probably a bit much to ask for a repeat, but something around 20th is very realistic. He finished 18th earlier this season at Phoenix, which is the closest comp we have so far this year.
• Chris Buescher -- I'm seeing his name come up a lot as a value target, but I like the guys around him here a bit more. Buescher is with a new team this year and I feel like they haven't quite clicked to where I have as much confidence using him as I did last year. In four of the last five races since the season resumed, Buescher has finished 22nd or 23rd (I'm ignoring his 32nd place finish at Darlington 1). And if you look at his average running position, it's pretty consistent with where he's finishing -- so it's not like he has a better car and is just catching bad breaks late in the race. His car is simply showing as about a 20th-24th place car right now. He's still in a real solid situation because they don't make a lot of mistakes and he's done well at Martinsville in the past. So, I don't dislike him by any means. I just don't know if he has any meaningful upside from his 24th starting spot.
• Michael McDowell - Far too cheap for the value he carries compared to those around him on the salary scale. He should be able to move up a few positions from his 29th starting spot.
• Eric Jones - For the car he drives, $6,500 is way too cheap. But starting 13th, I think that's too aggressive for cash games because he doesn't have any history of leading laps or running fast laps at Martinsville.

Bets -- I'm not seeing a whole lot I like on the betting front. Odds seem about right on to me. Will update if I see anything worth while.