Pocono xfinity

SEE FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE AT BOTTOM

I'll be posting more content for Saturday's Xfinity Series race late Friday night after we see what happens during Friday's two practice sessions.  For now, I'll leave you with a few notes to get started:

• Discount last year's Pocono results.  Last year at Pocono, the Xfinity teams ran a high down force package with a restrictor plate and aero ducts.  It was part of the real world testing done before introducing that package for Cup Series points races this season.  Driver history at the track is not going to be as important this week because we have less relevant data.
• There's only 100 laps this week, so only 75 total points available for fastest laps and laps led.  We also sometimes see different pit strategies at Pocono (because if you're close to the leader, you can pit under green and not go down a lap) which can spread laps led and fastest laps among several different drivers.  So, we're unlikely to see real big scores from anyone.
• Tyler Reddick has to be considered the Top Dog in the Series right now.  He has finished in the Top 4 in eight straight races and has won 2 of the last 3 races.
• Justin Allgaier seems to be rounding into form.  In the last three races (excluding Talladega) he's finished 3rd (Richmond), 2nd (Dover) and 2nd (Charlotte).
• Noah Gragson ($8,400), Jeffrey Earnhardt ($8,200), Michael Annett ($8,000) and Brandon Jones ($7,800) may stand out as values this week.  They are all in top level equipment with top level engines which is critical at Pocono.  If any of them don't qualify well, they will probably become must haves for a cash game lineup.

​I'll have more after we see what happens on Friday.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE

• Tyler Reddick will start the race from the rear of the field due to a transmission change after final practice.  I think he'll still run a qualifying lap but I'm not sure how much effort he'll put into it.  His car has great speed and he'll probably be a factor for the win.  But, even in the best scenario, it's hard to imagine him getting many laps led or fastest lap points.  He'll probably end up being a tournament only play unless he also has an official starting spot that is really deep in the field.
• Matt Mills spun in final practice and hit the inside wall pretty hard.  Reports were that he is going to a backup car.  I expect this will be a pretty poor quality backup car that may not be suited to run the full race.  I'm avoiding him.
• Cole Custer had the best 1 lap time, 5 lap average and 10 lap average in final practice.  I expect him to battle for the win and be a strong Dominator candidate.
• Christopher Bell was just a tick behind Custer and Reddick in final practice both in single lap time and 5 and 10 lap averages.  For 5 lap average, Custer was 53.32, Reddick was 53.40 and Bell was 53.93.  For 10 lap average, they were in the same order with times of 53.63, 53.64 and 54.00.  So Bell's fall off over the longer run was a bit less compared to Reddick and Custer.  I'd rank him as the 2nd best Dominator candidate behind Custer.  If Bell were to start on pole, I'd probably bump him up to #1.
• Michael Annett seemed like the best of the rest in final practice.  He was 5th on the single lap time, but 4th on the 5 and 10 lap average.  His 5 lap average was 53.97 and his 10 lap average was 54.24, so you can see he's not too far off the Big Three.  He's very reasonably priced at $8K.  He and Jeffrey Earnhardt are likely targets in that range.
• I don't really like a lot of the low salary guys.
  • I've used ​Chad Finchum and Timmy Hill several times this year but those MBM teams are very erratic and tough to use in cash games.  Hill ran only 4 practice laps and Finchum had 14.  If they start really far back, maybe they are viable, but I'm not real comfortable with them.  One of the MBM crew chiefs said on Twitter that both cars were running new engines last week at Charlotte and both of them failed very early in the race.  Finchum finished 38th and Hill was 35th.
  • I'm OK with Josh Williams.  He should be good for about a 20th place finish and that's about where he ran both practices.  It's a solid team and I normally like both their drivers.  This week the second driver (in the #90) is Ronnie Bassett Jr.  He was way off the pace in first practice (4.5 seconds per lap slower than the lead cars).  He was a little faster in final practice (3.2 seconds off the pace).  It's possible I'd use him if he starts way back.  At least you know the team is trying to run all the laps.  But don't expect very much.
  • Jeremy Clements showed decent speed in both practices.  Most of the mid pack guys were 2 seconds or more off the fastest times.  Clements was closer to 1.5 seconds per lap off the top times.  He's finished 7 of the 11 races this year between 13th-18th place.
  • Stephen Leicht and Joey Gase are two I might consider if they qualify 30th or worse.