Miami championship race

POST RACE UPDATE:  Hit all greens this week.  100% winners in cash games using the stars and scrubs approach I outlined on Saturday night.  Was a great way to finish off a very successful season.  I'll have a season-ending post or two in the next week or so to wrap things up for 2018.  Then I'll take some time away to think about what to do with the blog for next season.  If you have something you really like and want to continue -- or something new you would like to see next year -- please leave a comment or message me on Twitter @fantasynascargu

Thanks to all who have followed the blog throughout the season! 

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE:  Here we are -- the last Saturday update of the season.  I've settled on a lineup approach that I don't generally like.  What I'm seeing this week is a stars and scrubs approach.  What landed me there is a combination of (1) guys at the top end who I really like and think give us the best chance to dominate, (2) guys at the bottom who offer pretty decent value, and (3) what turns out to be a lack of value in the middle because guys like Eric Jones, Aric Almirola, etc. qualified in the Top 10 and don't seem to offer much dominator or position difference upside.  So here is the group of guys I'm really focused on:

• The Stars -- Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Joey Logano and Kyle Larson.  It wouldn't be crazy to add Kevin Harvick in there but there are enough issues there to keep me from using him in a cash game.  He has the highest salary and has looked the worst of this group on Friday and Saturday.  I'm also concerned that he's either unable or unwilling to run the high line.  That said, it would be surprising but not entirely shocking to see him go out and run a great race on Sunday.  So I'd recommend him for tournament use, not a cash game.
  • I'm pretty set on using Logano and Larson.  Logano has looked great all weekend and led basically every category in final practice.  Larson has led 100+ laps in each of the last two races here and runs the high line better than anyone else.  He showed very well on the overall average and 15-lap chart in final practice.
  • Between Busch and Truex, it's very tough.  Truex was great here last Fall and was just a notch below Logano in final practice.  In Busch's favor, he has the preferred #1 pit stall, an exceptional pit crew and showed excellent speed in final practice as well.  Given the turmoil with it being the last race for the #78 team, and the #18 team's likely advantage on pit road, I'd give the slight edge to Busch.  I could very easily see him leapfrogging a few guys during a pit stop under caution to take the lead and rack up a bunch of laps led points after he gets out front.
• ​The Scrubs -- Ross Chastain, Regan Smith, Ty Dillon and Landon Cassill.  I really like Chastain starting dead last and being dirt cheap.  He's got some very weak cars in front of him and is very likely to be a +6/7 position difference guy at a minimum.  Regan Smith has been very steady of late finishing in the mid-20s.  That's all we would need from him here.  Same deal with Ty.  He's been strong of late and he ran well here last year until suffering a cut tire very late in the race.  Cassill is also an option -- particularly if you prefer to use Harvick and need max savings on the bottom end.
• Denny Hamlin -- This seemed so odd to me that I had to point it out.  Denny Hamlin -- who starts from pole on Sunday -- also started from the pole in this race it 2015 and 2017.  In those two races combined, he did not lead a single lap.  In 2015, he finished 10th without leading a lap.  In 2017, he finished 9th without leading a lap.  That's just remarkable to me that a pole sitter could go two races without leading a single lap.  The take away -- fade like crazy in cash games and reserve as a large tournament play.   

Bittersweet to have the last race of the year upon us.  I'm very excited as a Nascar fan for the race itself.  We've got the very best teams racing for the championship just like it should be.  I'm also excited that we've been on a pretty good roll with our Fantasy Nascar picks here.  So it will be difficult to see the season come to an abrupt end Sunday afternoon.

267 laps on tap for Sunday, so 133.5 fastest lap points and 66.75 laps led points are up for grabs.  The last two Miami races have been remarkably similar when it comes to a pattern on the laps led.  Last season, Kyle Larson led 145 laps with Martin Truex coming next at 78 laps led.  In 2016, Kyle Larson again led the way with 132 laps led with Kevin Harvick coming next at 79 laps led.  In 2015, Brad Keselowski led the way with 86 laps led with Joey Logano following at 72 laps led.  So we're looking to grab at least one and preferably both of the Dominators we've seen here in the last two races in particular.

Here are the guys I'm focused on -- many of which will be no surprise:

• Kevin Harvick $12,500 -- The most expensive but also the guy I think is most likely to dominate and win.  In the last three races here he's finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  He did not lead any laps last year, but led 79 and 46 laps the prior two years.
• Kyle Busch $11,800 -- Finished 1st, 6th and 2nd in the last three races here.  Led 43 laps last year and 41 in 2015.  The only thing to give pause is that he's never really dominated in any of those three races.
• Martin Truex $11,300 -- Won the championship race here last year while leading 78 laps.  He bears watching but, as of now, I would say he's 4th (at best) on my list of likely dominators.  He seems to be lacking the very top end speed and I've got to imagine all the turmoil of this team closing up shop after the race is taking its toll.  While it would be quite the story for these guys to go out on top, it just doesn't seem realistic right now.
• Joey Logano $10,600 -- 6th, 4th and 4th in the last three races here.  It's been three years since he led a meaningful amount of laps here -- 72 in 2015.  He's been very strong in the last three races at 1.5 mile tracks.  4th place with 46 laps led at Vegas, 8th place with 100 laps led at Kansas and 3rd place with 54 laps led at Texas.
• Kyle Larson $10,000 -- As noted above, he's dominated the last two races here by blowing away the field with laps led.  He's finished 5th, 2nd and 3rd in the last three races here.  Priced well below the Big Three, he is a very strong target heading into the weekend.
• Brad Keselowski $9,400 -- He's been extremely consistent and strong at the 1.5 mile tracks.  I wouldn't count him out just because he's not in the running for the championship.
• Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola and Eric Jones $8,600-$8,200 -- All remain under priced in my view.  They remain in the sweet spot to construct a strong and well balanced lineup.
• Austin Dillon $7,700 -- Getting priced up a bit.  But he's finished 14th, 12th and 11th in the last three races here and he's been running well lately.
• AJ Allmendinger $6,500 -- Three straight Top 20 finishes here.  But it's his last race for this team and that causes me some concern about the focus, etc. during this weekend.
• I'll identify my favorite bottom end salary savers after we see where everyone qualifies.

We'll have updates leading into Sunday's race so check back often Friday, Saturday and pre-race on Sunday.