michigan cup

I've got a lot of uncertainty going into this Michigan race.  We don't really have good historical data because this package is so different then anything they've run at Michigan in recent years.  And we don't have a lot to go on with the new package at a 2-mile track.  Add it all up, and I'll probably be a little lighter then normal on Sunday because of got a lower level of confidence in my analysis of how things are most likely to play out.  That said, here's how I'm currently thinking about my cash game lineup:

• At the top end, Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott are standing out to me.
  
  • Harvick was fastest in single lap time in final practice.  And, as Jeff Gordon said a few times, it looked like his car stood out from others in its ability to pass other cars on the inside without other help.  I think Harvick is the top Dominator/laps led candidate.
  • In six Michigan races, Elliott has finished 2nd three times and has never finished outside the Top 10.  He has race winning potential and very strong position difference upside from the 17th starting spot.  His car looked like it had good sustained, long run speed in final practice.  Elliott has five straight Top 5 finishes overall and he's led at least 35 laps in 7 of the last 9 races overall.
  • I can't fault anyone for going with Kyle Busch and/or Martin Truex here.  Both also have race winning and position difference upside and strong Dominator potential.  I really can't say anything bad about them and it's going to make me nervous as heck if I end up fading them both.  I just liked the top two guys I mentioned a bit more.  As compared to Harvick, I didn't see Busch or Truex be able to complete a solo pass underneath another good car in practice.  And compared to Elliott, neither Busch nor Truex has been on such a consistent run over the past two months.  They've both dominated races at times, but they've also both faltered at times in the last few months (Busch 30th at Kansas three races ago and Truex 35th last week and 19th at Kansas).
  • I like Keselowski as a contrarian play in larger tournaments.  I think most will focus on these other four and leave Keselowski under owned.  
• From there, I jump down to the group of solid options in the $7,000 - $8,500 range.  I'll probably end up with 3 of them.  In salary order, Alex Bowman, Eric Jones, Jimmie Johnson, William Byron and Chris Buescher all offer value and position difference upside.
  
  • Like his teammate Elliott, Bowman has been pretty consistent of late.  He's got Top 7 finishes in 4 of the last 5 races and scored 50 or more DK points in each of those four races.
  • Jones was 3rd in 10-lap and 15-lap average times in final practice.  Top 6 finishes in 3 of the last 4 races.
  • Byron has Top 10 finishes in 3 of the last 4 races.
  • Buescher has Top 14 finishes and 40 or more DK points in three consecutive races.
  • For more aggressive/tournament players, Aric Almirola, Clint Bowyer and Daniel Suarez also stand out here.  The entire SHR group looked very good in practice and it wouldn't surprise to see any or all of those guys in the lead at some point Sunday.
• On the low end, I don't like a whole lot.  I see two paths for cash games.
  • If you want to/can spend up just a bit, Ty Dillon or Matt DiBenedetto is an option.  Both were faster then the others in this class on the longer runs in final practice.
    
  • Spend down on Bubba Wallace or Corey LaJoie.  Bubba's been showing better speed of late and seems to punch a bit above his weight class on the drafting tracks.  He was 21st last week and would be coming off even stronger back-to-back runs if not for some unlucky stuff on the track and on pit road at Charlotte.  I prefer Bubba over LaJoie and wound't go under Bubba in cash unless you really, really have to do it to get a guy up top that you love.
    
  • On the aggressive/tournament side, Daniel Hemric.