michigan cup

It has been an awfully crazy and unpredictable weekend of racing so far. And we look up and see Daytona starring us in the face for next weekend. Wow. Let's look at this Cup race on Sunday. Here are my cash game and single entry targets:

• The range from $7,000-$8,100 has a number of strong plays and should be the core of your lineup:
  • Christopher Bell (28th) - Gibbs typically brings really competitive cars to Michigan. It's difficult to pass on track here, but there are some strategy and pit call options available to gain track position. I could easily see Bell going +15 position difference here and that's not even his ceiling.
  • Austin Dillon (26th) - I wouldn't be surprised to see a two tire call from this team to gain track position. Battling his teammate Reddick for the final playoff spot, so you know you'll be getting their best effort here.
  • Daniel Suarez (30th) - Suarez has had a number of very strong runs in the 550 HP package this year. A Top 20 is certainly within reach here.
  • Tyler Reddick (14th) - A little more aggressive starting 14th, but he's been very consistent and strong in the 500 HP package. Holds the final playoff spot on points heading into Sunday's race.
  • Cole Custer (27th) - SHR has been a little better lately. Should have a good start on the setup from Harvick. Really affordable at only $7k.
  • Ross Chastain (22nd) - He and his teammate Kurt Busch have had really good speed ever since their double engine failures at Charlotte. +10 position difference is on the table here.
• Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch. Love them both.
  • Larson has, of course, been awesome from start to finish this year. And the two mile tracks at Auto Club and Michigan were arguably his best tracks back from his days at Ganassi. It's hard to pass the leader here, so this could be a race where Larson sets sail and never looks back. But we have a Lap 20 competition caution where everyone should pit (because it allows them to make it to the end of Stage 1), so we already know there will be an early restart. And we can sometimes see no tire or two tire stops here to gain track position. All those variables could throw Larson off a dominating performance.
  • Busch has finished inside the Top 6 at the last six Michigan races. And he's been probably second best to Larson in the 550 HP package this season. Starting 7th, he offers some + position difference upside and is cheaper than Larson.
• Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski - They are in an odd middle ground this week. Not as much position difference upside as the first group and not as much dominator potential as the Kyles. These guys also swapped spotters this week with T.J. Majors (one of the best) shifting from Logano to BK.
  
  • Reading some tea leaves here, I think this is the point where BK is going to start getting shut off from full Penske support. He's leaving at year end and, from this week's moves, seems likely to take Majors with him. It's common for teams to start to freeze out a driver who is moving to a new team the following year because they don't want all the in house secrets going too. So I'm not 100% sure that BK will be getting all Penske has to offer from this point on.
    
  • I'm also worried about Logano working with a new spotter at a track like Michigan where restarts and momentum are such a big factor.