Michigan Cup

It’s an interesting DFS slate for Sunday’s race. Obviously, the Toyotas have a ton of speed and are the favorites to lead laps, run fastest laps and finish very well. On the flip side, we have a number of guys who usually run near the front starting way back in the field after poor practice and qualifying sessions on Sunday. Let’s go through some of my favorite plays –

• Ross Chastain - He starts 22nd and was only 21st quick in practice. But we’ve seen Ross start further back and not have great practices this year and still perform very well in the race. He started 18th at Las Vegas and 22nd at Charlotte, but still led laps and ran fastest laps in those races. That shows what kind of upside he has. I think it’s a Toyota day, but can certainly see Ross finishing in the Top 10 with a handful of “dominator” points.
• Denny Hamlin - Denny was at the top of the 5-lap, 10-lap and 15-lap averages in practice on Saturday. He starts 9th, so gives us some position difference upside as well. With how dominant the Toyotas look, something would have to go really wrong to go backwards and he’s got a ton of laps led and fastest laps upside.
• Kyle Busch - He’s led laps and run fastest laps at most of the best comparable tracks this season, including Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte. He was really fast in practice (1st in single lap time and 3rd in 5-lap average). And he’s not crazily priced at a reasonable $10.5k. He's also got what is probably the best pit crew, which could help at a track where passing can sometimes get difficult.
• Alex Bowman - For the price and starting spot, this is an auto play in cash games and most single entry contests. He starts 30th, but wasn’t nearly that bad in practice – coming in 9th in single lap time and 5-lap average. He also has Top 10 finishes this season and three of the most comparable tracks.
• William Byron - Starts 20th for a reasonable $9,200 salary. Normally that would be a near lock button play as well, but his Saturday was really alarming. He was 27th in single lap speed and 21st in 5-lap average speed. That said, he’s been 3rd, 6th, 11th and 4th in green flag speed at the most comparable tracks this season, so there’s some reason for optimism.
• Bottom fillers – I'm interested in guys like Austin Dillon and Brad Keselowski who are starting pretty far back in the field, but I’m wondering how much they’re really worth given their lack of speed on Saturday. It might be better to just go cheap with guys like Harrison Burton, Corey LaJoie and Todd Gilliland so you can load up at the top of the salary scale. So you'll have to play around with different combinations and see what you're most comfortable with.