michigan final update

Sunday Morning Update:  I'm getting a sense that ownership of Harvick/Busch is going to be pretty low in cash games this week with people focusing instead on the guys starting further back -- Larson and Elliott in particular.  It's totally legitimate to go that way and fade the two studs if you want to be a bit more conservative about it.  That is one of the questions that makes this slate a little tricky.  Between those two, Larson looked better in practice.  About mid way through the last practice, he jumped into the Top 5 in single lap speed and he ended up 3rd in 10 lap average in final practice.  Elliott was 18th in single lap speed and did not run 10 consecutive laps.  I also like Bowyer in that range.  He will probably be a bit lower owned then Larson and Elliott.  Bowyer 8th in single lap speed and 7th in 10 lap average in final practice.

Got to admit that I struggled a bit in formulating the plan for a cash game lineup this week.  There are some good options up and down the lineup and at various salaries.  I think we'll see a lot of variety in line ups this week, which I think is generally a good thing for us.  Other than Suarez, I don't think there are any locks for a cash game lineup.  That being said, here's how I'm going about it on DK:

• Start with Suarez.  No reason at all to overthink that one starting 40th at his salary.
• Decide what to do with Harvick and Kyle Busch.  There's no realistic way to take them both.  So pick one or decide to fade them both and go with a more balanced approach with guys starting 10th-25th.  I think using Harvick is the best play.  I think he's most likely to score the most points and I also think he'll be highly owned.  Despite his salary, I would be really worried going into a cash game without him because if he dominates and is heavily owned, you're probably sunk no matter who else you have.
• Grab one (or two/three if you fade Harvick and Busch) of this trio of good drivers starting mid pack -- Larson, Bowyer and Elliott.  All things considered, I like Bowyer, Larson then Elliott.  Larson might have a slight edge in points potential, but he's almost $1K more than Bowyer.  For the price, I lean Bowyer.  Elliott starts furthest back and seemed off in practice.  He spun in final practice and just didn't seem to have great speed.  I am concerned he'll be highly owned, but we can't have everybody.
• Grab one of Blaney or Jones.  Jones had the best 10 lap average in both practices on Saturday.  Steve Letarte singled him out and wondered if he was the favorite.  He clearly has a Top 5 car so, while there's risk since he's starting 4th, I'm probably willing to take it with the upside he offers.  Blaney was second fastest in 10 lap average in the final practice.  He looks like he probably has a Top 5 car as well, but maybe a notch below Jones -- and he's $700 more than Jones.
• Look at Byron or Bowman.  These guys had the best speed from the Hendrick camp.  Bowman is running really well right now, so I would say a solid Top 12 finish is in order.  Byron starts 20th and you'd hope he could move into the Top 15 or so.  Bowman is $200 cheaper and that might be a determining factor.
• For salary savings, look at Bayne and Ty Dillon.  I highlighted Dillon's Michigan record earlier this week and Bayne looked pretty good in final practice all things considered.  Neither is really reliable, but we have some real bottom feeders at the back of the field this week, so if these guys can just finish the race, they're pretty likely to finish no worse than they started, which should pay off their low salaries.  I normally like Ross Chastain in this role too, but he's only $100 below Dillon and $200 below Bayne.  More importantly, he hasn't run a lap here this week because he's been in Ohio running his full time Xfinity ride there.  He'll start from the rear with no hot laps in the car.  That worries me quite a bit.

I think the same general approach works on FD.  Although, I might be more willing to fade Harvick and Busch there since laps led/fastest laps are less important as compared to DK.  If you do fade them and start with Suarez, you can take four very high quality drivers starting 4th-20th or so.  All the names above would be in play for those spots and you should have enough salary to pick whoever you want from those we listed.

On the GPP side, I think Hamlin, Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola are three good options that should come in at reasonable ownership levels.  I also really like Blaney and Jones in that format.

​GL!