michigan

Sunday Update — I added a few notes in the Saturday update. All in bold. Those are primarily my cash game targets. I can’t argue with those who prefer Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick. I do think they’ll perform well. But their salaries really hurt the rest of your roster. And which one of Truex or Larson do you leave off? Here are a few tournament targets I like:

• ​Clint Bowyer — showed good speed in final practice, including 4th best 10 lap average. Starts 12th.
  
• Joey Logano — has a very strong Michigan history as we documented below. Starts 5th.
• Matt Kenseth — quietly finished 13th last week; maybe a fringe Top 10 this week? Starts 19th.
  
• David Ragan — doesn’t have great Michigan history, but running pretty well lately. An alternate salary saver. Starts 27th.
  

Saturday Update — I’m traveling today so only have time for a quick update with thoughts after practice and qualifying:

• ​In the upper price range on DK, I like Keselowski, Truex and Larson. Truex and Larson obviously have strong position difference upside. Both qualified poorly but looked fine in final practice. Larson in particular looked really good. He had the 2nd fastest single lap time and the 3rd best ten lap average. With BK, I think he has about as much dominator potential as Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick and he has a $1k discount off both of them.
• In the mid range, I like Newman, McMurray and Bowman. Newman had a solid showing in final practice and he is just a bulldog who should be fine Sunday. We documented McMurray’s strong history at Michigan and he (along with teammate Larson) seemed to find some speed in final practice, so he should move forward. Bowman starts 21st. With the updated Chevy package doing well the last few weeks, I think he can finish between 10th-15th with some decent position difference. Update: I’ve cooled on Newman a bit. Like Jimmie Johnson and Bubba Wallace as well.
• For salary savers, I’ll highlight Ty Dillon and Ross Chastain. Chastain gets the most out of his car and Dillon at least has a strong engine. I’ll also mention William Byron. His DK salary is over $6k, so I wouldn’t call him a true salary saver. I just think he’s underpriced considering he is on a top team like Hendrick.

I may have a few more thoughts late tonight or tomorrow morning, so check back before lock.

Tuesday Night Post:

​Two things before getting into the details on the upcoming Michigan race.

(1) I don't know how many updates I'll do this week. I'll be at Texas Motor Speedway for the Camping World Truck Series race on Friday night and the Verizon IndyCar Series race on Saturday night. I may only send a few thoughts/driver targets on Twitter. And, if I do update this site, it might be shorter than normal. It just depends on how it goes in Texas. In case it's only on Twitter, make sure you follow me @illinisjc.

(2) I'm really happy with the way last week turned out. In my last update, I said this about FanDuel -- "I really like Larson and Almirola. Reasonable prices with good upside. It's probably worth taking the discount down to Busch and/or Truex instead of paying up to Harvick. You can fill in with salary savers after that." I followed my own advice and had a great return. In the $2 tournament, I used Chris Buescher as the last guy and came in 3rd out of 1,785. In a $3 tournament, I used Ty Dillon as the last guy and came in 5th out of 196. Check out this ROI:
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Michigan Opening Notes
So let's move on to this week at Michigan and hope we can continue on a pretty good roll.  Here are the guys I'll be most focused on going into the race weekend:

• Larson -- He's finished 1st, 1st, 1st and 3rd in the last four Michigan races.  At the most similar track this year (California/Auto Club) he finished 2nd.  I think the only way I might not use him is if he qualifies on the pole but has to start from the back for some reason.  Pretty much going to be a lock.
• Truex -- He's my next closest thing to a lock.  He's finished 2nd and 6th in the last two Michigan races.  At Auto Club earlier this year, he started from the pole, won the race and led 125 of 200 laps.  He's also finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and 4th in the last four races overall this season.  So there's a lot of things pointing in his direction right now.
• Chase Elliott -- The Hendrick cars seem to be showing some better speed of late.  In his four Michigan races in the Cup Series, Chase has finished 8th, 2nd, 2nd and 2nd.  Depending on salary and starting position, he could be an excellent target this week.  He will definitely be in play for tournaments, even if not cash games.
• Jamie McMurray -- This one surprised me a bit, but he's finished in the Top 10 four consecutive Michigan races and five of the last six.  He, too, has shown a bit better speed of late -- finishing as high as 6th at Charlotte.  Depending of the salary and starting spot, he, too, could be a good moderate salary target.
• Kevin Harvick -- Not sure he will be worth the salary this week.  We'll have to see how fast he looks in practice.  His last five Michigan finishes are 13th, 14th, 5th, 5th and 2nd.  He did not lead any laps or finish in the Top 10 at either Michigan race last year.  Also, he finished 35th and nine laps down at Auto Club earlier this season.  I'm guessing he'll be more of a tournament only guy this weekend.
• Brad Keselowski -- BK finished 17th and 16th last year at the two Michigan races.  However, in the second race, he started from pole and led over half the laps (105) in the race.  And, before last year, BK had six consecutive Top 10 finishes at Michigan.  He ran 4th this season at Auto Club.  Lastly, he's a Michigan native, so would like nothing more than to get his first Michigan win in the Cup Series.  He bears watching this weekend.
• Joey Logano -- He finished 28th in the last Michigan race.  But, prior to that, he had nine straight Top 10 finishes at Michigan -- including two wins.  He also finished 5th this season at Auto Club.
• AJ Allmendinger -- I'm not looking for a Top 10 from this team.  But he's been solid here with three straight Top 20 finishes and about 10 positions gained per race.  At Auto Club this year, he finished 22nd with a +10 position difference.  He is my top lower salary guy going into the weekend.