michigan preview

Back to more of a normal schedule this week with one practice and qualifying on Friday, two practices on Saturday and the race on Sunday.  So we shouldn't have any race day inspection issues like we did with Watkins Glen.

200 laps at Michigan, so we've got 100 fastest lap points and 50 laps led points in play on DK.  In the last few Michigan races, we've seen the top "Dominator" lead about half the laps and get a similar number of fastest laps.  So there will be more focus on the potential dominators this week.

Here's an initial list of guys I'm most focused on heading into Friday.  It's a longer list then I'd like to start from for two reasons.  First, I think we've got a bit of a deeper field at the top.  In other words, I don't see the Big Three as far out in front of the field as we saw at other tracks.  I can see a race Dominator coming from somewhere other than that group of three.  Maybe that changes with practice and qualifying -- we'll see.  Second, there's a pretty deep group of mid- to low- priced salary saver type guys.  More of them are in play then normal.  We'll be able to chop down this list as the weekend goes along and we see practice speeds and starting spots, etc.  So here they are:

• Chase Elliott -- Coming off his first Cup series win, he heads to his best track.  Five Top 10 finishes in five Cup series races at Michigan with three 2nd place finishes.  Started 13th and finished 9th in June at a time when the Chevrolet teams were really struggling.
• Kyle Larson -- Finished 28th in June, but won the prior three Michigan races.
• Kevin Harvick -- Arguably had the best car as the June race progressed, but got beat by Clint Bowyer on a pit strategy call in a rain shortened race.  Will certainly be on the prowl this weekend.  SHR cars dominated the June race.  They finished 1st (Bowyer), 2nd (Harvick), 3rd (Kurt Busch) and 11th (Almirola).
• Jamie McMurray -- Surprisingly, he has five straight Top 10 finishes here.  Might be a good value at $7,600 DK and $8,000 FD depending on starting spot.
• Kurt Busch -- Started from pole, led 46 laps and finished 3rd in the June race.  As mentioned, SHR was awesome here in June.  Prior to the June race, Kurt had been remarkably consistent, finishing 10th, 12th, 12th and 11th in the prior four Michigan races.
• Joey Logano -- Finished 7th in June.  Finished in the Top 10 four of the last five races at Michigan, including a win in June 2016 where he led 138 laps for the most dominant performance we've seen here in the last five races.
• Eric Jones -- Carrying a ton of speed right now.  Finished 15th here in June -- but also has a 3rd place finish here last August.  I think he remains under priced at $8K DK.  Less of a bargain at $9,400 FD.
• Martin Truex -- Been a tough track lately with only two Top 10 finishes in the last five races here.  In June, he started 17th and fell back to 18th without ever really moving forward.  Before that he finished 2nd with 57 laps led and 6th with 62 laps led, so he's still one to watch for sure.  Has never won at this 2-mile track, but did get his first win at a 2-mile track at California Auto Club earlier this season.
• Kyle Busch -- Started 3rd and finished 4th as the best non-SHR car in June.  Has three straight Top 10 finishes here, but he's not been a dominator here recently.  His best performance in the last five races is a 7th place finish with 40 laps led last year in June.  In June 2016, he blew an engine and finished 40th.
• William Byron -- Finished 13th here in June and the Hendrick camp seems to have some improved speed lately.  Under priced at $6,800 DK and $7,700 FD.
• Clint Bowyer -- Didn't have the best car in June, but won the rain shortened race due to a 2-tire pit call and a great restart to hold off Harvick.  Did I mention how good the SHR cars looked in June?
• Aric Almirola -- SHR
• Ryan Newman -- Finished 22nd in June, but that was his first finish outside the Top 20 here in 15 races!  Steady point grabber at a very reasonable salary.
• AJ Allmendinger -- Seems odd to include him the week after Watkins Glen, right?  But he has four straight Top 20 finishes here with a cumulative +34 position difference in those four races.  Pretty solid at $6,300 DK and $7,100 FD.
• Ty Dillon -- Wait, what?  Yes, Ty Dillon.  In his three races here in the 13 car, he's finished 20th, 21st and 21st with a collective +39 position difference in those three races.  Will take that all day at $5,700 DK and $5, 500 FD.
• Bubba Wallace -- Another possible salary saver at $6,400 DK and $6,500 FD.  In his two Cup series races here, he's finished 19th both times with a +7 and +9 position difference.
• Alex Bowman -- Started 21st and finished 15th here in June.  Again, very under priced for a Hendrick car at $6,600 DK.

I'll have some Xfinity notes on Friday night and a full/final Cup update Saturday night.