michigan trucks

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I'm going to be focusing on finishing position and position difference in this race. That is because we really don't see any dominators collecting a ton of laps led or fastest laps at Michigan Truck races. In the last three races here, only Kyle Busch in 2017 led more than 26 laps. In the other two races, we've saw multiple drivers lead somewhere between 10-26 laps. Even more important, we rarely see anyone get more than 10 fastest laps because the draft plays such a big role at a long, high speed track like Michigan. In the last three Michigan races, only one driver had more than 10 fastest laps in each race -- and none of them got to 20 fastest laps. In short, we've been seeing dominator points capped at about 15 points in recent Michigan races -- an amount that can easily be matched by position difference scoring.

With that background, I'm going to talk first about four position different drivers I think will be very heavily targeted across the board on Friday night:

• John Hunter Nemechek (starting 34th) -- The most expensive driver on the slate has a lot of position difference upside. I'd say something in the 6th-8th range is a reasonable target if he doesn't run into any issues. But there are a lot of risks here. First, JHN is very aggressive to begin with and this is a one off "checkers or wreckers" type situation for him. Second, this is a part time team and the equipment isn't always reliable. Especially in the COVID and no testing times, the already significant risk here of mechanical failure is increased. In two races this season, JHN finished 6th at Charlotte and 25th at Atlanta. In the Atlanta race, his truck got heavy damage front and back during a pit road collision at the end of Stage 1. It wasn't his fault, but the damage really slowed him down the rest of the day. He has no laps led and 3 fastest laps in his two races this year. Last year, JHN did five races in this truck and finished 29th or worse four times. He had two accidents and two mechanical failures knocking him out of races. The one successful race in 2019 was a 7th place finish at Martinsville.
• Parker Klingerman (starting 35th) -- Parker has done five Trucks series races in 2019 and 2020 so far. In his two races this year, he finished 15th at Pocono and 18th at Kentucky. Last year, he finished 20th at Atlanta, 13th at Bristol and 10th at Homestead. The numbers pretty clearly show what the situation is with these two. JHN has more upside, but more chance for a bad finish and Parker is going to pretty reliably finish somewhere between 10th - 20th. Neither is likely to lead laps and both could grab a handful of fastest laps in the draft.
• Tyler Hill (starting 30th) -- This is a quality truck and Tyler is too cheap at $4,900. This truck has finished just inside the Top 20 in four of the last five races and that's a reasonable expectation here.
• Austin Wayne Self (starting 27th) -- This is another driver that seems under priced at $6,000. He pretty clearly offers the best combination of reliability and upside in this price range. He has four straight Top 20 finishes this season and has seven Top 20 finishes in ten races this year. In the last four Michigan races, Self has finished 16th, 15th, 11th and a fluky 5th last year. In all, though, great results of late this year and in all recent Michigan races. 

I don't see any reason to not use Hill and Self in cash games. As far as other position difference options if you want to go away from JHN or Klingerman, here are my top choices:

• Ben Rhodes - He's finished in the Top 5 in three of the last five races this season. And he was really fast last year at Michigan before cutting a tire and having to pit twice under the green flag. Prior to that, he had led 16 laps and run 10 fastest laps.
• Todd Gilliland - Been pretty good all year with Top 5-8 potential.
• Stewart Friesen - Been off all year. He's an option but I don't feel great about it.

Lastly, if you want to try to find a dominator, I think Austin Hill and Brett Moffitt have the best chance of being the guy who puts up the 10+ fastest laps and leads the most laps. The issue with both of them, as I summarized at the start, is that they have no meaningful position difference upside so they're going to need that 10+ dominator points to make it worth using them.

ADDED: I could also see Zane Smith being a guy who can finish in the Top 3 and get you 10 or so dominator points. If salary were no issue, I'd rank him 3rd behind Hill and Moffitt. But salary is an issue and Zane is quite a bit cheaper, so he's worth a look starting 7th which gives him some room for a position difference impact as well.